Archives for March 2019

Charlie Munger Daily Journal Annual Meeting 2019 Full Video, Full Transcript, and Notes

Posted on March 11, 2019 // 1 Comment

If you like hearing Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger talk at the Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) annual meeting, you should also watch or listen to Charlie Munger at the Daily Journal (DJCO) annual meeting. DJCO is his personal pet project, and I feel like he lets loose more at this meeting than at BRK. For 2019, CNBC broadcast the entire 2-hour Q&A session online. Latticework Investing generously shares a full transcript as well. I choose to listen to this over any finance-related podcast.

Here are my personal notes and highlights:

Think for yourself.

[…] my definition of being properly educated is being right when the professor is wrong. Anybody can spit back what the professor tells you. The trick is to know when he’s right and when he’s wrong. That’s the properly educated person.

Index funds have become more and more successful for a simple reason. The evidence is getting stronger over time that they provide better long-term performance due to lower costs and better tax-effeciency.

Another issue of course that’s happened in the world of stock picking, where all this money and effort goes into trying to be rational, is that we’ve had a really horrible thing happen to the investment counseling class. And that is these index funds have come along and they basically beat everybody. And not only that, the amount by which they beat everybody is roughly the amount of cost of running the operation and making the changes in investments. So you have a whole profession that is basically being paid for accomplishing practically nothing. This is very peculiar. This is not the case with bowel surgery or even the criminal defense bar in the law or something. They have a whole profession where the chosen activity they’ve selected they can’t do anything.

[…] I don’t have any solution for this problem. I do think that index investing, if everybody did it won’t work. But for another considerable period, index investing is going to work better than active stock picking where you try and know a lot.

If you are trying to beat the indexes, you need LESS diversification, not more. Wait for a few fat pitches and don’t hesitate to swing. This isn’t as widely known, but Munger’s personal portfolio is roughly 1/3rd Berkshire Hathaway stock, 1/3rd Costco stock, and 1/3rd invested in Li Lu, an investment manager based in China.

But the whole trick of the game is to have a few times when you know that something is better than average and to invest only where you have that extra knowledge. And then if you get just a few opportunities that’s enough. What the hell do you care if you own three securities and J.P. Morgan Chase owns a hundred? What’s wrong with owning a few securities?

[…] So the whole idea of diversification when you’re looking for excellence, is totally ridiculous. It doesn’t work. It gives you an impossible task.

Now at a place like Berkshire Hathaway or even the Daily Journal, we’ve done better than average. And now there’s a question, why has that happened? Why has that happened? And the answer is pretty simple. We tried to do less. We never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about canned soup and aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on. We never had that dream. We never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like Jim Cramer pretends to have. (laughter) We always realized that if we worked very hard we can find a few things where we were right. And that a few things were enough. And that that was a reasonable expectation.

Avoid any pitches that promise easy money from stock-picking. Penny stocks, day-trading, trends, charts. All of them.

Then if you take the modern world where people are trying to teach you how to come in and trade actively in stocks. Well I regard that as roughly equivalent to trying to induce a bunch of young people to start off on heroin. It is really stupid. And when you’re already rich to make your money by encouraging people to get rich by trading? And then there are people on the TV, another wonderful place, and they say, “I have this book that will teach you how to make 300 percent a year. All you have to do is pay for shipping and I will mail it to you!” (laughter) How likely is it that a person who suddenly found a way to make 300 percent a year would be trying to sell books on the internet to you! (laughter) It’s ridiculous.

Have modest expectations in stock market returns.

Well, my advice for a seeker of compound interest that works ideally is to reduce your expectations. Because I think it’s going to be tougher for a while. And it helps to have realistic expectations. Makes you less crazy. I think that…you know they say that common stocks from the aftermath of the Great Depression, which was the worst in the English speaking world in hundreds of years, to the present time may be an index that’s produced 10 percent. Well that’s pre-inflation. After inflation it may be 7 percent or something. And the difference between 7 and 10 in terms of its consequences are just hugely dramatic over that long period of time. And if that’s 7 in real terms, but achieved starting at a perfect period and through the greatest boom in history, starting now it could well be 3 percent or 2 percent in real terms. It’s not unthinkable you’d have 5 percent returns and 3 percent inflation or some ghastly consequences like that. The ideal way to cope with that is to say, “If that happens, I can have a happy life.”

Be very careful about who you chose to partner up with in your life.

We all know people that are out married, I mean their spouses are so much better. Think of what a good decision that was for them. And what a lucky decision. Way more important than money. A lot of them did it when they were young, they just stumbled into it. Now you don’t have to stumble into it, you can be very careful. A lot of people are wearing signs, “Danger. Danger. Do not touch.” And people just charged right ahead. (laughter) That’s a mistake. Well you can laugh but it’s still a horrible mistake.

On becoming rich.

This business of controlling the costs and living simply, that was the secret. Warren and I had tiny little bits of money. We always underspent our incomes and invested. And if you live long enough you end up rich. It’s not very complicated.

“If it’s trite it’s right.”

I think personal discipline, personal morality, good colleagues, good ideas, all the simple stuff. I’d say, if you want to carry one message from Charlie Munger it’s this, “If it’s trite it’s right.” All those old virtues, they all work.

My general idea is there’s no point in fretting too much about what you can’t fix. It’s a big mistake to fill yourself with resentments and hatreds and so on. It’s such a simple idea but so many people ruin their lives unnecessarily. Envy is such a stupid thing to have because you can’t possibly have any fun with that particular sin. Who in the hell ever had any fun in envy? What good could envy possibly do for you? And somebody is always going to be doing better than you are. It’s really stupid. So my system at life is to figure out what’s really stupid and avoid it. It doesn’t make me popular, but it prevents a lot of trouble.

Filed Under: Inspirational, Investing //

Marcus Bank $100 Bonus: Both New and Existing Customers

Posted on March 10, 2019 // 6 Comments

Update: This offer has expired.

I’m never really sure what to call it, but Marcus (formerly Goldman Sachs Bank) is offering a $100 bonus if you deposit $10,000+ in new funds into their online savings account within 10 days of enrollment at this special offer page. You must enroll by 11:59pm EST on 3/18/19 and maintain the new $10,000+ deposit for 90 days. They will deposit $100 into your account within 14 days, after those 90 days (got it?). Both new and existing customers are eligible, which is nice.

Offer available to new and existing customers. Each customer is limited to one bonus offer, which can only be applied to a single account. For eligibility purposes, each joint owner will be treated as a separate customer. For example, if you apply the bonus offer to a joint account, the remaining joint owner(s) may apply this offer to another account they own if they have not done so already. Offer not available to customers who are currently enrolled in a different bonus offer on an existing savings account. […] The bonus will be treated as interest for tax reporting purposes.

Basically a 1% bonus on $10,000 if you keep it there for 90 days, which makes it roughly 4% APY annualized. The bonus is on top of the standard interest rate, currently 2.25% APY as of 3/10/19. This combination makes it a great 3-month rate at that balance size when compared to my last monthly update of best interest rates.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers //

Warren Buffett CNBC Interview 2019 Full Video, Full Transcript, and Notes

Posted on March 7, 2019 // Leave a Comment

I’m one of the many folks who like to keep up with Warren Buffett content to see if there is any wisdom to be gained. After the release of the 2019 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder letter, Buffett did a 2-hour interview with Becky Quick of CNBC. While I don’t like when CNBC encourages average folks to treat investing like sports betting, I do appreciate that they offer up the entire interview online along with a full transcript.

Here are my personal notes after both watching (listening, actually) and then reading the text as well.

If you don’t DIY, the person who manages your money should invest it as they would their own family’s money. Most of Buffett’s and Munger’s family money is invested in BRK stock. Maybe not Buffett’s wife, but their children and grandchildren. That is why Berkshire Hathaway is run with such care and conservatism such that no disaster would make it permanently impaired. This is different from when a CEO has an agreement to make lots of money if the share price goes up in the short-term, and he/she simply jumps ship if things go horribly wrong. Check out this excerpt about the target audience for his shareholder letter:

I’ve always had the image that I am talking to my sisters. I have two sisters. They’re both– Berkshire’s pretty much their whole investment. They’re smart. They’re not active in business. So– they’re not reading about it every day. But I pretend they’ve been away for a year and I’m reporting to them on their investment. And then this year because we may be repurchasing shares, I tried to have the vision that they were talking to me about whether they should sell their shares and I was explaining to them exactly how I would look at it if I were in their shoes. So– it’s, “Dear Doris and Bertie,” at the start and then I take that off at the end. But I’m talking to them. And I’m trying to talk to ’em in a manner where if– you know, they’re practically entirely in Berkshire and if they were thinking of selling some, here’s what I’d want ’em to know before they made a decision.

That is how I try to write this blog. I am telling you my asset allocation, the names of the mutual fund and ETFs that I own, the brokerage accounts that I hold them in, the banks that I keep my cash in, the credit cards that I have applied for and use everyday. These are the same things I would recommend to my parents and siblings (and children eventually). Hopefully, if something happens to me, then my writing here can serve as a resource about what my (their) portfolio is and why I bought them and how they should spend from it. I want my spouse to hopefully keep the faith and allow it to provide for them even if I’m not around.

Even if markets aren’t perfectly efficient, it’s still really hard to beat the S&P 500. In response to a viewer question, Buffett discloses the two men picked to replace him in the stock-picking arena, Ted Weschler and Todd Combs, have lagged the S&P 500 slightly since they started 8 years ago. Yes, this was during a bull market, but they still lagged over a pretty long period. These guys sit around all day reading 10-Ks and were handpicked by Warren Buffett himself! You must ask yourself, do you really think you have an edge on them?

BECKY QUICK: That worked the last 77 years, but there’s a question that came in, T29. This is from Scott Baker. “With so many people in the S&P index funds is it still market neutral and the best investment vehicle for most people?”

WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, I think it’s the best investment– because most people don’t know how to pick stocks. And– most of the time I don’t know how to pick stocks. I mean, it’s– it is not an easy game. And by definition people are going to do average. I mean, if you take everybody in aggregate, and if half of ’em are paying big fees and jumping around and paying brokerage commissions, the other half have to do better. And– no, it is– as I’ve told people in– and my widow will I’ve instructed– the trustee to put 90% in an S&P 500 index fund and 10% in governments, just so that– just for a feeling of security. But– there’s been no better bet than America. There’s been nothing like it.

Be patient. Be prepared. Buffett is still waiting for an opportunity, probably in the next recession or down part of the economic cycle. One of the things that makes Buffett special is his rationality and patience. Berkshire still has a ton of cash, and he won’t spend it just because talking heads says he should. With the size of their cash hoard, they want to buy an entire business at a good price. However, private equity has too much money to deploy, and is bidding up all the private businesses because they are willing to use leverage. This will eventually change. One day, probably within the next decade, the short-term outlook for businesses will be quite gloomy.

Filed Under: Investing //

Free Morningstar Premium Mutual Fund Reports via Public Library Card

Posted on March 6, 2019 // 16 Comments

Updated 2019. Let’s say you are a DIY investor and doing some research on some mutual funds. You decide to learn more about the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund. You pull up the Morningstar quote pages (ticker VWITX and VWIUX) and find some useful numbers, plus an analyst report hidden to the public as a “premium” feature.

You see a 14-day free trial and after some more clicking around, you discover that a premium membership to Morningstar costs $199 a year or $24 a month.

mstar_premium2

Now, I’d like to read the rest of that analyst report, but I’m not sure if it is worth the fee. Well, you may already have access to those analyst reports through your payment of local and state taxes. Yup, the good ole’ public library!

Many public libraries have a subscription to what is called the Morningstar Investment Research Center database. Most offer instant, online access via your library card number and PIN. You should look under the “Databases” or “Resources” section. Some only have a limited amount of offsite licenses, so you’ll have to either ask for a password or you’ll have to read them in a branch. Here’s a screenshot of my free report accessed from the comfort of my home, with all the good stuff blurred out of course:

I was also able to access their analyst reports for stocks, mutual funds, and ETFs, as well as the premium version of tools like Portfolio X-Ray.

Now, if your local library system doesn’t provide this access, you can also look at state libraries, university libraries, or other libraries in the region for which you are eligible. Finally, there are some public libraries that offer library cards to non-residents for an annual fee. For example, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Library in North Carolina offers library cards by mail for $45 a year (Seniors 62+, $35 a year).

Non-residents of Mecklenburg County can obtain a Charlotte Mecklenburg Library card for an annual fee of $45.00. This amount is approximately equal to the annual property tax a Mecklenburg County resident pays to support the Library. A non-resident library card entitles you to the full services of the Library at all locations.

According to their website, they also offer access to the Morningstar database. $45 a year is still significantly less than $199 a year, and there are other library benefits like access to Libby/Overdrive eBooks and RB Digital magazines. However, I would call them to confirm before you plunk down $45 as the services they offer can change at any time.

That is just one example. Here are some more libraries with non-resident borrowing privileges, although I haven’t checked again in 2019 as to whether they offer M* access.

Bottom line. If you want to access reports and information from the Morningstar Premium section, check your local and state libraries to see if you can access it for free with your library card. Some public libraries also offer library cards to non-residents for an annual fee. However, if you are signing up for a specific service like Morningstar, I would call them up first and confirm that they are still offering it for non-resident cardholders before you pay any fees.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Frugal Living, Investing //

Personal Finance on a 3×5 Index Card: Classic and New Young Adult Version

Posted on March 5, 2019 // 9 Comments

A few years back, Professor Harold Pollack quipped that everything you really need to know about money fits on a 3×5 index card. Folks asked him to prove it, and the resulting handwritten card went viral. Eventually, the idea became a book cowritten with Helaine Olen called The Index Card: Why Personal Finance Doesn’t Have to Be Complicated. Here is the original photo:

Via Abnormal Returns, I learned that Dr. Pollack recently created a new index card targeted at young adults under 30. Here again is a photo:

In case you can’t make out the handwriting, his tips are as follows:

  • Pay your credit card bill in full every month.
  • Keep a budget and spending diary. Pay cash up front whenever you can.
  • Don’t smoke. Mind your alcohol and dining spending, too.
  • Start saving early. Make it automatic, ideally through a 401(k).
  • If you have a job and no kids, aim to save 20% of pretax income.
  • Invest in low-fee total stock index funds, ideally in a 401(k).
  • Open a Roth IRA if you don’t have access to a 401(k).
  • Don’t buy individual stocks or try to time the markets.
  • Think federal first when borrowing for school. And don’t combine public and private loans if you consolidate.
  • A focused and rigorous major matters more than where you go to college.
  • Don’t push your friends to overspend. And beware the same peer pressures applied to you.

Sound, simple advice. But simple is not easy, and it can be hard to pull off everything on this list. I recommend using the card to help focus your efforts.

Filed Under: Frugal Living, Investing //

Best Interest Rates on Cash – March 2019

Posted on March 4, 2019 // 13 Comments

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash for March 2019, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to get an idea of how much extra interest you’d earn if you are moving money between accounts. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 3/4/19.

High-yield savings accounts
While the huge megabanks like to get away with 0.01% APY, it’s easy to open a new “piggy-back” savings account and simply move some funds over from your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I prioritize banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • Redneck Bank offers 2.50% APY on balances up to $50,000. CIT Bank Savings Builder is now up to 2.45% APY with a $100 monthly deposit (with no balance limit). There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at 2% APY and up.
  • Got a lot of friends or followers? You can 4.30% APY on up to $50,000 for 30 days via the Empower app, plus another 30 days for each friend that you refer to the. First month is free + 11 referrals = 4.30% APY for a year.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • Purepoint Financial has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 2.60% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. Marcus Bank 13-month No Penalty CD at 2.35% APY with a $500 minimum deposit, Ally Bank 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.30% APY with a $25k+ minimum, and CIT Bank 11-month No Penalty CD at 2.05% APY with a $1,000 minimum. No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Hyperion Bank has a 13-month CD at 3.20% APY ($500 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 3 months of interest.

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs
If you like to keep cash in a brokerage account, beware that many brokers pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the money for themselves). The following money market and ultra-short bond funds are not FDIC-insured, but may be a good option if you have idle cash and cheap/free commissions.

  • Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund currently pays an 2.46% SEC yield. The default sweep option is the Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund, which has an SEC yield of 2.34%. You can manually move the money over to Prime if you meet the $3,000 minimum investment.
  • Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond Fund currently pays 2.71% SEC Yield ($3,000 min) and 2.81% SEC Yield ($50,000 min). The average duration is ~1 year, so there is more interest rate risk.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 2.87% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 2.93% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 3/4/19, a 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 2.44% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 2.54% annualized interest.
  • The Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF (GBIL) has a 2.30% SEC yield and the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 2.21% SEC yield. GBIL appears to have a slightly longer average maturity than BIL.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. There are annual purchase limits. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest.

  • “I Bonds” bought between November 2018 and April 2019 will earn a 2.82% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More info here.
  • In mid-April 2019, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.

Prepaid Cards with Attached Savings Accounts
A small subset of prepaid debit cards have an “attached” FDIC-insured savings account with exceptionally high interest rates. The negatives are that balances are capped, and there are many fees that you must be careful to avoid (lest they eat up your interest). Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. There is a long list of previous offers that have already disappeared with little notice. I don’t personally recommend or use any of these anymore.

  • The only notable card left in this category is Mango Money at 6% APY on up to $2,500, but there are many hoops to jump through. Requirements include $1,500+ in “signature” purchases and a minimum balance of $25.00 at the end of the month.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops, and if you make a mistake you won’t earn any interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others do. Rates can also drop to near-zero quickly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling. I don’t use any of these anymore, either.

  • The best one right now is Orion FCU Premium Checking at 4.00% APY on balances up to $30,000 if you meet make $500+ in direct deposits and 8 debit card “signature” purchases each month. The APY goes down to 0.05% APY and they charge you a $5 monthly fee if you miss out on the requirements. Find a local rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.
  • If you’re looking for a high-interest checking account without debit card transaction requirements then the rate won’t be as high, but take a look at MemoryBank at 1.60% APY.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going.

  • Hyperion Bank has a 19-month CD at 3.50% APY ($500 minimum) with an early withdrawal penalty of 6 months of interest.
  • Mountain America Credit Union has the following certificate rate: 2-year at 3.25% APY 3-year at 3.35% APY, 4-year at 3.25% APY, 5-year at 3.51% APY ($500 minimum deposit). MACU can be joined via a partner organization for a one-time $5 fee, usually right on the online application. Note: The 2-year and 3-year certificates have an early withdrawal penalty of 180 days of interest, and the 4-year and 5-year certificates have an early withdrawal penalty of a full year (!) of interest.
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable fixed early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, Vanguard is showing a 2-year non-callable CD at 2.60% APY and a 5-year non-callable CD at 3.00% APY. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs listed by Fidelity.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10+ years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable fixed early withdrawal penalties. As of this writing, Vanguard is showing a 10-year non-callable CD at 3.25% APY. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs from Fidelity. Matching the overall yield curve, current CD rates do not rise much higher as you extend beyond a 5-year maturity.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate which is quite low (currently a sad 0.10% rate). I view this as a huge early withdrawal penalty. You could also view it as long-term bond and thus a hedge against deflation, but only if you can hold on for 20 years. As of 3/4/19, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 2.93%.

All rates were checked as of 3/4/19.



Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing //

Discount Mags Employee Discount Sale

Posted on March 1, 2019 // 2 Comments

DiscountMags.com is running their Employee Discount Sale through Monday, March 4th at 11:59pm ET. These sales usually only run for a few days and are good for gifts or locking in a low price for a few years. Here are some sample magazine prices during the sale.

  • Consumer Reports Magazine. 1 year 13 issues for $18.75 ($1.44/issue)
  • Outside Magazine. 1 year, 12 issues for $4.66 ($0.58/issue)
  • ESPN. 1 year 12 issues for $4.54 ($0.38/issue)
  • Women’s Health. 1 year 12 issues for 4.84 ($0.48/issue)
  • Men’s Health. 1 year 12 issues for 9.56 ($0.96/issue)

Importantly, DiscountMags does NOT require auto-renewal, where they charge your credit card automatically at the end of the subscription period at a higher price. I have used them in the past. This mean you never have to call in to cancel, and makes it easier to shop for another deal later. No sales tax either.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers //
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