Vanguard: Recommended Strategies for Maximizing Retirement Income

Posted on June 9, 2026 // 2 Comments

Vanguard Research recently released a whitepaper titled Vanguard’s Principles for Retirement Income (direct PDF link) and I was surprised to find it rather substantial – almost a short book on retirement income planning that provides valuable insight into their (growing!) financial advisory services. The focus is clearly about creating a sustainable income from your portfolio, not the usual stuff about growing your portfolio.

Focusing on income rather than account balances can lead to clearer decision-making in retirement.

Without a defined income plan, investors may spend too cautiously or risk drawing down their assets too quickly. With an income-focused framework, you can better understand how to turn your savings into spending by having a clearer view of:

– How much you can withdraw over time.
– How long your assets may need to last.
– How different risks can affect outcomes.

As a start, you have your sources of guaranteed income (pensions, annuities, Social Security) and roughly 3.5% to 4% of your portfolio, based on historical numbers:

Here are some of the recommended strategies to help stretch things further to create enough income for the rest of your lifetime. Some are more for those that really need to make some big, hard decisions in order to not run out of money, while others are more about marginal improvements.

  • Work longer. Not ideal, but powerful. You earn more, you also delay the start of Social Security claiming, and you have a shorter retirement period to cover.
  • Dynamic spending. Rather than a fixed percentage withdrawal rate, dynamic spending extends the life of the portfolio by reducing withdrawals if there are poor market returns. There are many ways to implement this.
  • Convert some assets to SPIA (single-premium income annuity). If you need to support a hard floor in your income to support essentials, an SPIA can help provide the reliable income needed.
  • Tapping home equity. Something to consider if necessary to provide for essentials, especially later in retirement.
  • Roth conversions. Converting tax-deferred investments to Roth when your marginal tax brackets are lower (like right after you stop working) can reduce your overall tax paid.
  • Tax-efficient withdrawal strategy. In general, you should withdraw from taxable accounts
    first, then tax-deferred, then save Roth for last.

If anything, this paper provides some good places to dig deeper when the time comes.

Filed Under: Annuities, Investing, Retirement, Taxes //

Still Buying the Haystack and Sleeping Well Because I’ll Own The Needles (Winners)

Posted on June 1, 2026 // 3 Comments

In 2019, I wrote the post Buying The Haystack: Sleeping Well Because I’ll Own The Winners (Needles). Recently, Hendrik Bessembinder updated his previous research with the paper One Hundred Years in the U.S. Stock Markets (SSRN/PDF), which tracked the “investment outcomes for 29,754 common stocks listed on the public U.S. stock markets over the 100-year period from 1926 to 2025”. Some highlights:

  • Total Net Wealth created over that period: ~$91 Trillion.
  • The 0.2% Needles: Just 46 stocks (roughly 0.2% of the ~30,000 total stocks) were responsible for generating 50% of that $91 trillion.
  • The 4% Needles: Only 4% of all stocks accounted for 100% of the net value creation. The other 96% collectively just matched risk-free US Treasury bills – many were complete or nearly complete losses, the rest had smaller gains that only just offset those losses. This means that the top 4% created all of the net wealth creation.

Here is a chart that summarizes this info from a Vanguard Australia article Equity market skewness: The few mega-winners and the case for diversification:

I will simply quote Bogle and myself now, because I am lazy and honestly that’s how investment writing works. You just end up repeating and/or repackaging the same 10-25 rules over and over again.

As the late Jack Bogle told us: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.”

I don’t know which will be the most successful US companies in the future, but I know that I will own them via the total US index fund in my portfolio. I will own the next Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, or Visa. I’ll also own whoever disrupts them after that. Since I own a big chunk of global stocks inside the Vanguard Total International Stock Index fund, I’ll be covered if they come from the other side of the world.

In 2026, this means I own NVIDIA/Alphabet/Google/Microsoft, but in 10 years, I know that the picture will be at least somewhat different.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Advantages of Owning Vanguard Total US and Total International Stocks ETFs Separately

Posted on May 18, 2026 // 4 Comments

One of the most popular ways to build out the stock portion of a simple index fund portfolio is to own the following two Vanguard ETFs:

  • Vanguard Total US Stock Market ETF (VTI), which tracks the CRSP US Total Market Index representing ~100% of the investable U.S. stock market and includes large-, mid-, small-, and micro-cap stocks.
  • Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), which tracks the FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index representing equity market performance in developed and emerging markets, including 48 countries and excluding the United States.

However, a lesser-known option is to own a single Vanguard ETFs that attempts to track all the investable stocks in the entire world:

  • Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT), which tracks the FTSE Global All Cap Index, a free-float-adjusted, market-capitalization-weighted index designed to measure the market performance of large-, mid-, and small-capitalization stocks of companies located around the world.

You may already have noticed that VTI/VXUS together have a lower blended expense ratio than VT, at least partially due to how big they are and their economies of scale. This Elm Wealth article goes into detail about one of the major benefits of owning them separately in a taxable brokerage account: the ability to obtain the Foreign Tax Credit. VT is ~60% US stocks and thus does not qualify for the Foreign Tax Credit.

The net result of this is that VXUS effectively earns you an extra 0.23%, which when added to the expense ratio difference in a blended 60% VTI/40% VXUS portfolio ends up being worth 0.13% annually. The effect of an extra ~0.13% in essentially guaranteed extra performance every year (in a taxable account) is pretty significant and can really compound over time. I’m happy to see a number placed on this benefit.

The article includes other good points, with the overall takeaway being that owning both VTI and VXUS has a lot of notable advantages and only minor disadvantages. VTI and VXUS are my largest holdings by far, and I agree that it’s hardly any extra work to add the tiny bit of complexity of owning two ETFs (that mostly already rebalance automatically with price changes).

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Savings I Bonds May 2026 Rate: 0.9% Fixed Rate, 4.26% Total Rate for 6 Months

Posted on May 3, 2026 // 5 Comments

May 2026 update: Savings I Bonds bought from May 1, 2026 to October 31, 2026 will have a fixed rate of 0.90% and inflation rate of 3.36%, for a total composite rate of 4.26% for the first 6 months. For comparison, the current Treasury yields are 1-year @ ~3.7% and 5-year @ ~4.0%, while TIPS real yields are 5-year @ ~1.33%.

Every existing I Bond will earn this inflation rate of ~3.36% eventually for 6 months; you will need to add your own fixed rate that was set based the initial purchase month. See you again in mid-October for the next early prediction for November 2026.

Original post from 4/12/2026:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. With a holding period from 12 months to 30 years, you could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the May 2026 savings bond rates just before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what an April 2026 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a November 2025 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. September 2025 CPI-U was 324.800. May 2026 CPI-U was 330.213, for a semi-annual inflation rate of 1.67%. Using the official composite rate formula:

Composite rate formula: [Fixed rate + (2 x semiannual inflation rate) + (fixed rate x semiannual inflation rate)]

This results in the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle being ~3.34 to 3.39%, depending on the fixed rate.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until after 12 months of ownership, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A simple “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month – same as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month. (You should always sell at the very beginning of the month.)

Buying in April 2026. If you buy before the end of April, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.90%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 0.90 + 3.13 = 4.03% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.90 + 3.36 = 4.26%.

Buying in May 2026. If you buy in May 2026, you will get ~3.36% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is officially unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS with some reductions. In the previous 10 days, 5-year TIPS real rates have ranged from 1.34% to 1.42%. If I had to guess, I’d put a new fixed rate somewhere between 0.9 to 1.0%, for a total rate of about 4.26%. Every six months after your purchase, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your specific purchase month. Everyone will eventually get this variable rate. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (based on purchase month, look it up here) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%).

Buy now or wait? Between those two options, if you are a long-term holder, you may consider waiting until May or even October to see if the fixed rate goes up a little. You may also think higher inflation is coming, and you’ll get that next inflation rate sooner if you buy in May. See below for why I am buying TIPS instead.

Unique features and benefits! There are definitely reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and potential tax benefits if used toward qualified educational expenses.

Unique drawbacks! You can only buy new savings bonds through TreasuryDirect.gov, which is limited in its customer service resources and features. There is also no option for paper tax forms nor statements (or even online monthly statements), so your heirs may never know they exist! If they do find it, it may take them several months and a lot of effort to close out all the estate paperwork. If you forget your password, it may take weeks or longer to unlock your account.

If you become a victim to theft or fraudulent activity, they will not replace any lost or stolen savings bonds. They explicitly accept no liability:

§ 363.17 Who is liable if someone else accesses my TreasuryDirect ® account using my password?

You are solely responsible for the confidentiality and use of your account number, password, and any other form(s) of authentication we may require. We will treat any transactions conducted using your password as having been authorized by you. We are not liable for any loss, liability, cost, or expense that you may incur as a result of transactions made using your password.

The juice may not be worth the squeeze when you can own individual Treasury bonds or TIPS within any full-service brokerage account. It’s sad that they’ve basically let this investment decay away due to neglect.

I also used to believe that the government would not tamper or attempt to politically influence these BLS CPI statistics that are at the core of many important functions, including Social Security inflation adjustments, TIPS, and these Savings Bonds. Now I’m not so sure. I found this guest article from TIPSWatch to offer some perspective: A historical look at political influence over the BLS.

Personally, I sold all my savings bonds in 2024 and do not plan to buy any more. I’m older now and I feel the small potential benefit just doesn’t outweigh the small possibility that I could lose the entire amount due to estate-handling mistakes or online hack. I’d rather own TIPS and US Treasuries directly in a full-service brokerage account. As a long-term holder, I can lock in a 2 to 2.7% real yield with a longer term TIPS bond.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. You can only buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their poor service. (No more tax refund savings bonds.) Technically, the purchase limits are per Social Security Number or Employer Identification Number. For those looking for another way to expand their purchasing power, that means you can also buy for a child, grandchild, LLC, or a trust.

Bottom line. Savings I bonds are a unique, low-risk investment that are linked to inflation and only available to individual investors. You can now only purchase them online at TreasuryDirect.gov. They have both unique benefit and drawbacks. For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: US Savings Bond advertisement – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds //

MMB Portfolio Dividend & Interest Income – 2026 1st Quarter Update

Posted on April 8, 2026 // Leave a Comment

Here’s my 2026 1st Quarter income update as a companion post to my 2026 1st Quarter asset allocation & performance update. Even though I don’t focus on high-dividend stocks or covered-call strategies, I still track the income from my portfolio as an alternative metric to price performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements, which helps encourage consistent investing. Here’s a quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies. – Jack Bogle

Stock dividends are a portion of profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares. They have explicitly decided that they don’t need this money to improve their business, and that it would be better to distribute it to shareholders. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

Here is the historical growth of the S&P 500 total dividend, which tracks roughly the largest 500 stocks in the US, updated as of 2026 Q1 (via Yardeni Research):

Tracking the income from my portfolio. Three of the primary “trees” that produce “fruit” in my portfolio are Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI), Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), and Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. Companies do buybacks as well, often because they are easier to discontinue. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI) via WallStNumbers.com.

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes even fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that also means the dividends move up and down with earnings. The starting yield is currently higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

In the case of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), they are legally required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Historically, about half of the total return from REITs is from this dividend income. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market.

Finally, the last income component of my portfolio comes from interest from bonds and cash. Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP) are example holdings, with the actual amount varying with the prevailing interest rates, the real rates on TIPS, and the current rate of inflation.

Dividend and interest income yield. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 4/8/26), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. My TTM portfolio yield is now roughly 2.61%.

In dividend investing circles, there is a metric called yield on cost, which is calculated by dividing the current dividend by the original purchase price. In other words, while my portfolio yield today is may be lower than say a target withdrawal rate of 3%, that is because the current market price is also a lot higher. Due to increasing dividends on average over time, my yield-on-cost based on my portfolio value from 10 years ago is over 5%.

What about the 4% rule? For big-picture purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (closer to age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). It’s just a quick and dirty target to get you started, not a number sent down from the heavens!

During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving your skillset, networking, and/or looking for asymmetrical (unlimited upside, limited downside) entrepreneurial opportunities where you have an ownership interest.

Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are simply another “paycheck”. As with our other variable paychecks, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on. You don’t have to wait until you hit a magic number. Our life path has been very different because of this philosophy. FIRE is Life!

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

MMB Portfolio Asset Allocation & Performance – 2026 1st Quarter Update

Posted on April 1, 2026 // 1 Comment

Here is my 2026 1st Quarter portfolio update that includes all our combined 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excludes our house and small side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our real-world, imperfect DIY portfolio.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types:

  • The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my multiple accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and figures out my overall asset allocation across the entire portfolio. Formerly known as Personal Capital.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new sheet each quarter, so I have a personal archive of my portfolio dating back many years.

2026 1st Quarter Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Empower Personal Dashboard.

The major components of my portfolio are broad index ETFs. I do mix it up a bit around the edges, but not very much. Here is a model version of my target asset allocation with sample ETF holdings for each asset class.

  • 35% US Total Market (VTI)
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value (AVUV)
  • 20% International Total Market (VXUS)
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value (AVDV)
  • 5% US Real Estate (REIT) (VNQ)
  • 20% US “Regular” Treasury Bonds and/or FDIC-insured deposits (VGSH)
  • 10% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (SCHP)

Big picture, it is 70% businesses and 30% very safe short-term bonds/cash:

By paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, I am trying to essentially guarantee myself above-average net performance over time.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios. You’ll usually find that whatever model portfolio is popular at the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently.

The portfolio that you can hold onto through the tough times is the best one for you. I’ve been pretty much holding this same portfolio for 20 years. Check out these ancient posts from 2004 and 2005. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to earn those historically high returns. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you should feel the urge to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

Performance details. Here’s an updated YTD Growth of $10,000 chart courtesy of Testfolio for some of the major index ETFs (total US stock, total international stock, total US bond) that shows the difference in performance in the broad indexes:

Nearly everything went up in 2025. So far in 2026, if you had a good dose of international stock diversification, you were pretty much flat. I read that the S&P 500 went down about 5%, and the Magnificent 7 went down about 13% in the first quarter. I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

Vanguard ETF & Mutual Fund Fee Cuts (February 2026)

Posted on February 3, 2026 // 3 Comments

Vanguard just announced a new round of expense ratio drops spanning 53 funds (roughly 25% of them), totaling close to $250 million in fee reductions in 2026. See their press release and full list of changes. This comes almost exactly a year after their February 2025 cuts which spanned 87 funds with an estimated $350 in fee reductions that year.

Over the past two years, Vanguard has reduced fees on most of its fund lineup totaling nearly $600 million in savings for investors—Vanguard’s largest-ever two-year combined cost reduction. Vanguard’s product lineup across all asset classes and styles now has an average expense ratio of 0.06%, reinforcing the firm’s longstanding cost leadership position. These consistently low costs help investors keep more of their returns, contributing to stronger long-term performance.

Additional media coverage at the Wall Street Journal (gift article) and Morningstar.

At this point, most of their expense ratios are so low on their big funds that most individual investors won’t notice much of a difference. The largest index funds VTI, VXUS, BND are unchanged. Target Retirement funds are also unchanged. However, I do believe it is an important indicator that Vanguard is still lowering costs as their assets under management continue to grow.

As an individual investor, it’s also important to remember that costs matter and those costs directly affect performance. Jack Bogle was right in his past skepticism of ETFs in that over time, the group has grown to include a lot of complex, expensive options. While the overall, asset-weighted average expense ratio for ETFs has declined over time, the average fee of newly launched ETFs has actually increased. Be wary of all those new, fancy ETFs that make attractive promises like limited downside and extremely high dividend income. This “Boomer candy” almost always comes with a higher expense ratio, and I am willing to bet it will also end up with lower long-term returns. New tricks, same old story.

Personally, I note that the Vanguard 0–3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL) lowered its expense ratio from 0.07% to 0.06%. My current go-to is iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV), which is at 0.09%.

The 30-day median bid/ask spread on VBIL is now 0.01% of market price, meaning its liquidity is now basically on the same level as SGOV (also at 0.01%). I will probably start using VBIL instead of SGOV for the times when I want a short-term cash equivalent in a brokerage account. 0.03% is a small difference, but I gotta keep incentivizing those lower costs. Long live the Vanguard Effect!

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Top 10 Largest US Companies 1985 vs. 1995 vs. 2005 vs. 2015 vs. 2025 (The Haystack Keeps Changing)

Posted on January 23, 2026 // Leave a Comment

The late Jack Bogle was often credited with the saying: “Don’t look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack.” If you look at the entire “haystack” of the overall market as hundreds and thousands of individual companies, over time there are a lot of losers and a few big winners, or “needles”.

In addition, I’d also add the saying that “The haystack is always changing.” Check out the table above of the top 10 largest US companies in different decades, updated as of 12/31/25 as collected by JP Morgan Asset Management (this is a useful resource that is updated every quarter).

Notice that all the 1985 Top 10 companies are marked as green. There are fewer and fewer left in the top 10 after each decade that passes, and there are none in 2025. Most likely, by the time 2045 or 2065 rolls around – when you might be retired! – the Top 10 will include companies that don’t even exist today.

Investing in a simple market-cap index fund will always be criticized as “dumb” or “overweight this” or “underweight that”. I think weighing by the company value is a perfectly fine system for the patient, long-term investor. In the end, things shakes themselves out. If you buy the entire investable US stock market, or even extend this to the entire investable world stock market, you can be sure that you own all the eventual winners.

I enjoy not having to worry about things in the long term. If I feel like doing some active trading, I can, but I can also go weeks without checking a single stock ticker if I’m not in the mood.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

MMB Portfolio Dividend & Interest Income – 2025 Year End Update

Posted on January 13, 2026 // Leave a Comment

Here’s my 2025 Year-End income update as a companion post to my 2025 Year-End asset allocation & performance update. Even though I don’t focus on high-dividend stocks or covered-call strategies – I still track the income from my portfolio as an alternative metric to price performance. The total income goes up much more gradually and consistently than the number shown on brokerage statements, which helps encourage consistent investing. Here’s a related quote from Jack Bogle (source):

The true investor will do better if he forgets about the stock market and pays attention to his dividend returns and to the operating results of his companies. – Jack Bogle

Stock dividends are a portion of profits that businesses have decided to distribute directly to shareholders, as opposed to reinvesting into their business, paying back debt, or buying back shares. They have explicitly decided that they don’t need this money to improve their business, and that it would be better to distribute it to shareholders. The dividends may suffer some short-term drops, but over the long run they have grown faster than inflation.

Here is the historical growth of the S&P 500 total dividend, which tracks roughly the largest 500 stocks in the US, updated as of 2025 Q4 (via Yardeni Research):

Tracking the income from my portfolio. Three of the primary income “trees” that produce income “fruit” in my portfolio are Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI), Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS), and Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

In the US, the dividend culture is somewhat conservative in that shareholders expect dividends to be stable and only go up. Thus the starting yield is lower, but grows more steadily with smaller cuts during hard times. Companies do buybacks as well, often because they are easier to discontinue. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total US Stock ETF (VTI) via WallStNumbers.com.

European corporate culture tends to encourage paying out a higher (sometimes even fixed) percentage of earnings as dividends, but that also means the dividends move up and down with earnings. The starting yield is currently higher but may not grow as reliably. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS).

In the case of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), they are legally required to distribute at least 90 percent of their taxable income to shareholders as dividends. Historically, about half of the total return from REITs is from this dividend income. Here is an updated chart of the trailing 12-month (ttm) dividend per share over the last 15 years paid by the Vanguard Real Estate Index ETF (VNQ).

The dividend yield (dividends divided by price) also serve as a rough valuation metric. When stock prices drop, this percentage metric usually goes up – which makes me feel better in a bear market. When stock prices go up, this percentage metric usually goes down, which keeps me from getting too euphoric during a bull market.

Finally, the last income component of my portfolio comes from interest from bonds and cash. Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (VGSH) and Schwab US TIPS ETF (SCHP) are example holdings, with the actual amount varying with the prevailing interest rates, the real rates on TIPS, and the current rate of inflation.

Dividend and interest income yield. To estimate the income from my portfolio, I use the weighted “TTM” or “12-Month Yield” from Morningstar (checked 1/4/26), which is the sum of the trailing 12 months of interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed (usually zero for index funds) over the same period. My TTM portfolio yield is now roughly 2.66%.

In dividend investing circles, there is a metric called yield on cost, which is calculated by dividing the current dividend by the original purchase price. In other words, while my portfolio yield today is 2.53%, that is because the current market price is also a lot higher. Due to increasing dividends on average over time, my yield-on-cost based on my portfolio value from 10 years ago is over 5%.

What about the 4% rule? For big-picture purposes, I support the simple 4% or 3% rule of thumb, which equates to a target of accumulating roughly 25 to 33 times your annual expenses. I would lean towards a 3% withdrawal rate if you want to retire young (closer to age 50) and a 4% withdrawal rate if retiring at a more traditional age (closer to 65). It’s just a quick and dirty target to get you started, not a number sent down from the heavens!

During the accumulation stage, your time is better spent focusing on earning potential via better career moves, improving your skillset, networking, and/or looking for asymmetrical (unlimited upside, limited downside) entrepreneurial opportunities where you have an ownership interest.

Our dividends and interest income are not automatically reinvested. They are simply another “paycheck”. As with our other variable paychecks, we can choose to either spend it or invest it again to compound things more quickly. You could use this money to cut back working hours, pursue a different career path, start a new business, take a sabbatical, perform charity or volunteer work, and so on. You don’t have to wait until you hit a magic number. Our life path has been very different because of this philosophy. FIRE is Life!

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

MMB Portfolio Asset Allocation & Performance – 2025 Year End Update

Posted on January 9, 2026 // 5 Comments

Here is my 2025 Year-End portfolio update that includes all our combined 401k/403b/IRAs and taxable brokerage accounts but excludes our house and small side portfolio of self-directed investments. Following the concept of skin in the game, the following is not a recommendation, but a sharing of our actual, imperfect DIY portfolio.

“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have in their portfolio.” – Nassim Taleb

How I Track My Portfolio
Here’s how I track my portfolio across multiple brokers and account types:

  • The Empower Personal Dashboard real-time portfolio tracking tools (free) automatically logs into my different accounts, adds up my various balances, tracks my performance, and calculates my overall asset allocation daily. Formerly known as Personal Capital.
  • Once a quarter, I also update my manual Google Spreadsheet (free to copy, instructions) because it helps me calculate how much I need in each asset class to rebalance back towards my target asset allocation. I also create a new sheet each quarter, so I have a personal archive of my portfolio dating back many years.

2025 Year-End Asset Allocation and YTD Performance
Here are updated performance and asset allocation charts, per the “Holdings” and “Allocation” tabs of my Empower Personal Dashboard.

The major components of my portfolio are broad index ETFs. I do mix it up a bit around the edges, but not very much. Here is a model version of my target asset allocation with sample ETF holdings for each asset class.

  • 35% US Total Market (VTI)
  • 5% US Small-Cap Value (AVUV)
  • 20% International Total Market (VXUS)
  • 5% International Small-Cap Value (AVDV)
  • 5% US Real Estate (REIT) (VNQ)
  • 20% US “Regular” Treasury Bonds and/or FDIC-insured deposits (VGSH)
  • 10% US Treasury Inflation-Protected Bonds (SCHP)

Big picture, it is 70% businesses and 30% very safe bonds/cash:

By paying minimal costs including management fees, transaction spreads, and tax drag, I am trying to essentially guarantee myself above-average net performance over time.

I do not spend a lot of time backtesting various model portfolios. You’ll usually find that whatever model portfolio is popular at the moment just happens to hold the asset class that has been the hottest recently.

The portfolio that you can hold onto through the tough times is the best one for you. I’ve been pretty much holding this same portfolio for 20 years. Check out these ancient posts from 2004 and 2005. Every asset class will eventually have a low period, and you must have strong faith during these periods to earn those historically high returns. You have to keep owning and buying more stocks through the stock market crashes. You have to maintain and even buy more rental properties during a housing crunch, etc. A good sign is that if prices drop, you’ll want to buy more of that asset instead of less. I don’t have strong faith in the long-term results of commodities, gold, or bitcoin – so I don’t own them.

Performance details. Here’s an updated YTD Growth of $10,000 chart courtesy of Testfolio for some of the major ETFs that shows the difference in performance in the broad indexes:

Nearly everything went up in 2025. I doubt 2026 will be boring. I’ll share about more about the income aspect in a separate post.

Filed Under: Goals, Investing, Retirement //

2025 Year-End Review: Asset Class & Target Date Fund Returns

Posted on January 4, 2026 // 1 Comment

2025 saw positive returns for every broad asset class that I track. Per Morningstar, here are the total annual returns (includes price appreciation and dividends/interest) for select asset classes as benchmarked by popular ETFs after market close 12/31/25.

I didn’t include Bitcoin or any other crypto because I don’t track them as a long-term asset, only own small amounts temporarily, and would not advise my family to own it. However, I do acknowledge that it went down slightly this year.

Meanwhile, Gold went up by a lot this year, which indicates to me that Gold and Bitcoin have some very different characteristics. Very few developed countries are buying large amounts of Bitcoin to store in their central bank vaults.

The “set and forget” Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 fund (VFFVX), currently consisting of roughly 90% diversified stocks and 10% bonds, was up 21.4% in 2025.

Commentary. 2024 yet again shows that you want to stay in the game. There are always going to be reasons to be afraid: because US stocks continue to have historically high valuations, because you’re worried about an AI bubble, or worried that AI will instead take your job…

Here are your cumulative returns through the end of 2025 if you had been a steady investor in the Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 for many years despite the many, many problems of the world:

(These work great inside 401ks and IRAs. I’d avoid buying Target Retirement mutual funds in a taxable account.)

I feel the need to promote slow compounding over all the short-term madness around us. Sports gambling. Risky options trading. Crypto joke coins. Buy Now Pay Later. I tell my kids that it’s perfectly okay to avoid some stuff completely. You don’t need to try it to know it’s a bad idea.

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement //

LifeX TIPS ETFs: Monthly Inflation-Adjusted Income

Posted on December 11, 2025 // 4 Comments

Sometimes it seems like everyone just wants risk these days. Crypto. Sports gambling. Options trading, ETFs that magically yield 10% or more. However, if you’re in the opposite camp and you want the absolute least amount of risk, you’d want to retire off an investment that has a return that is fully-guaranteed, pays out a monthly income like clockwork, is even guaranteed to grow with inflation. Inflation was relatively mild for a long time until recently, but historically it has been a significant risk factor.

If that interests you, check out 3 Ways to Build an Inflation-Adjusted Pension by Allan Roth – which first reminds you that Social Security is exactly this! – but also introduces a new series of LifeX Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETFs.

At current rates as of 12/11/25, the LifeX 2055 Inflation-Protected Longevity Income ETF (LIAM) contains a managed portfolio of United States Treasury Inflation Indexed Bonds (TIPS) that can provide you with a 4.26% guaranteed real withdrawal rate for 30 years. That means a $1,000,000 portfolio would distribute roughly $42,600 in annual income this year, but that number would increase with CPI inflation each year for 30 years (through the year 2055). At 3% average inflation, your 30th year’s income would have grown to over $100,000 a year. Of course, inflation could be a lot higher, which is why no private insurance company will sell you inflation protection over such a long period of time.

After those 30 years, you will be left with nothing. Your initial principal will be gone. Therefore, your income taken each year is partially a return of principal.

The expense ratio is 0.25%, which isn’t Vanguard-level but not horrible. I like that it does all of the work for you in a tidy ETF package, as building a TIPS ladder yourself can be a bit tricky (and do you want to keep doing it at age 80, 90?). Of course, I also worry about what happens if you bought a 30-year ladder at 65 and happen to live past 95. It could happen, and remember, this product is meant for the risk-averse folks that like to cover all the bases.

In general, I feel a TIPS ladder or equivalent that adjusts with inflation would work well in combination with a traditional annuity like an SPIA or a deferred longevity annuity that starts at a later age, which doesn’t adjust with inflation but does provide an higher initial fixed income that can last as long as you live. This is what I have set up for my parents – Social Security that rises with inflation, plus a joint income annuity that pays out as long as one is living.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //
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