The Power (and Limitations) of Buy & Hold “Do Nothing” Portfolios

June 1, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 2 Comments
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Morningstar has been running an interesting series of articles on “Do Nothing” portfolios where they take the idea of “Buy and Hold” to the extreme. When you buy and hold a traditional index fund, the holdings still change over time. New companies are added, companies are merged or acquired, and some are taken out every year.

What if you instead bought the individual stocks in the S&P 500 from 10 years ago, and then did absolutely nothing? You wouldn’t buy any new companies. If a company was bought out, you just kept the cash. (Dividends were reinvested.) From the article What Beat the S&P 500 Over the Past Three Decades? Doing Nothing, you would have found out that the “No Nothing” portfolio has actually outperformed the S&P 500 during this 2013-2023 period by a tiny bit:

John Rekenthaler extended this backtest to the past 30 years. The “Do Nothing” portfolio still won slightly from 1993-2023. From the article More Lessons From the Do Nothing Portfolio:

He added a real-world example of “buy and hold forever” in the Voya Corporate Leaders Trust (LEXCX), which is a very quirky mutual fund that essentially bought equal amounts of stock from 30 of the largest US companies back in 1935 and then sat on its hands. Voya Corporate Leaders Trust also did quite well over the same 1993-2023 period:

So we should all just do nothing right? Well, not so fast. The next article The Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio examined buying the 10 largest US companies as of December 1986 and then doing nothing. That result wasn’t as great, and it didn’t help if you held them by market-weight, equal-weight, or rebalanced. The Total US Stock Market index (Wilshire 5000) won by a large margin, although the gap only really widened after 2010.

It appears that doing nothing can do surprising well, but you still run the risk of missing out on owning some breakthrough companies over the long run.

My takeaway is that we should be very thankful that we can buy a simple, low-cost Total US stock market or S&P 500 index fund and just “do nothing” while it does all the work. The market cap-weighting system automatically adjusts to include new companies in whatever new industry may emerge. You don’t have to worry about missing out on the next Apple or Google. I sleep well knowing that I will always own the entire haystack and all the needles inside.

Filed Under: Investing
Last updated: June 2, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Why a Your Portfolio Should Contain (At Least Some) International Stocks

May 31, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 2 Comments
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If you own a target retirement fund, you probably own a decent chunk of international stocks. However, these days it’s harder to find people telling you to own international stocks when you build your own portfolio, mostly because of the outperformance of US stocks over non-US stocks for long time now. The article International Diversification – Still Not Crazy after All These Years does a good job of reminding us why owning some international stocks is still a good idea. Here’s the brief summary:

International diversification has hurt US-based investors for over 30 years, but the long-run case for it remains relevant. Both financial theory and common sense favor international diversification, which is buttressed by empirical evidence that is very supportive at longer horizons and for active strategies. Finally, it would be dangerous to extrapolate the post-1990 outperformance of US equities, as it mainly reflects rising relative valuations. If anything, the current richness of US equities may point to prospective underperformance.

For one, the diversification benefits in times of market crashes are still there… as long as you expand your time horizon. The major risk for a US-only portfolio is a prolonged recession in the US, while the rest of the world recovers more quickly. The “insurance” analogy still applies as historically there has definitely been a cushioning effect over time from spreading your bets.

Exhibit 1 shows that over short horizons, global portfolios (dashed) can suffer almost as much as an average local portfolio (dot- ted); but once you look out a couple years or so, global portfolios fare much better.

Exhibit 2 tracks the Shiller CAPE ratio (Cyclically-Adjusted Price/Earnings ratio) of US stocks and EAFE developed international stocks. The red line represents ratio between the US and EAFE valuations. Much of the historical outperformance of the US over EAFA stocks since 1990 was not earnings growth itself, but expansion of the P/E ratio (how much you pay for those earnings).

Will US stocks permanently maintain a P/E ratio that is 50% higher than international stocks? I have no idea, but it’s definitely not a sure thing. I let my portfolio asset allocation float with the market weightings (with a slight US tilt since I live here), so I don’t really worry about it because if US stocks keep growing faster than international stocks, then I’ll just gradually end up owning more US stocks while paying a sort of insurance premium hit for owning the international stocks. But if international stocks end up making even a minor improvement like a return to valuation ratios pre-2010, my portfolio can still benefit.

Filed Under: Investing
Last updated: May 31, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

M1 Finance Review: Free Custom Robo-Advisor: 5.00% APY w/ M1 Plus, Up to $15,000 ACAT Transfer Bonus

May 30, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 48 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

New 5.00% APY savings account w/ M1 Plus membership, up to $500 deposit and $15,000 ACAT promos updated. I’ve tried out my share of robo-advisors, which always sounded nice in theory but I eventually became disillusioned as they kept generating lot of unnecessary taxes every time they change their model portfolios to chase the latest and hottest trends. My favorite option is where I can pick my own custom target portfolio, but the robo still does the hard work: M1 Finance. Here’s a quick rundown of what makes them different:

  • Fully customizable. You pick your own target asset allocation “pie”. (You can add ETFs or individual stocks.) You can simply copy one of the many model portfolios out there, or make your own custom pie as you like. You have full control! M1 handles the tedious stuff, like rebalancing or dividing a $100 contribution across 8 different ETFs.
  • No commissions. Free stock/ETF trades with a low $100 minimum for taxable accounts and a $500 minimum for retirement accounts.
  • 0.00% management fee! Most robo-advisors charge an annual management fee of 0.25% to 0.50% of assets, or force you to own something bad, like artificially low-interest cash. (Looking at you, Schwab…)
  • Free dynamic rebalancing. All new deposits (and withdrawals) will be invested (or sold) dynamically to bring your portfolio back toward your target asset allocation. M1 will also rebalance your entire portfolio back to the target allocation for you automatically (for free) whenever you chose, on demand. You don’t need to do any math or maintain any spreadsheets.
  • Fractional shares (dollar-based). For example, you can just set it to automatically invest $100 a month, and your full amount will be spread across multiple ETFs. Dollar-based transactions were one of the advantages of buying a mutual fund, but fractional shares solve this problem. ETFs are also usually more tax-efficient than mutual funds.
  • Real brokerage account with off-the-shelf investments that you can move out. Some robo-advisors hold special, proprietary funds that you have to sell if you ever leave, possibly creating a big tax bill. (Looking at you, Fidelity…) M1 is built on a regular brokerage account, so you can move your Vanguard/iShares/Schwab ETFs and stock shares out to another broker whenever you want.

M1 Finance investment minimums:

A minimum account balance of $100 is necessary to get started on M1. Once the $100 account minimum has been reached, deposits can be any amount above $10. Retirement accounts require an initial investment of $500.

M1 Finance checks off nearly all the boxes of my brokerage wish list. They do all the managing for me, but according to MY rules. I don’t like it when robo-advisors keep changing their portfolios to match up with whatever is trendy (private equity, crypto, etc). But since I can choose the exact ETFs that they purchase, if I decide to stop their service down the line, I just end up with a brokerage account filled with ETFs that I can easily move elsewhere. I suppose the only thing they could add would be to have the high availability of knowledgeable customer service of a huge company like Fidelity or Schwab. Otherwise, I really like their feature set and I have been putting my recent annual IRA contributions into M1.

If you want to invest in newer factor ETFs that focus on Small-Cap, Value, Momentum, or Quality factors like those from DFA and Avantis, their service makes it much easier to set up a portfolio with lots of ETFs.

How does M1 make money? They have a variety of income streams:

  • Interest on idle cash (can be minimized as you can auto-invest all idle cash in the investment account)
  • M1 Borrow (you take out a loan, they charge interest)
  • M1 Checking (debit card generates fees for them)
  • Payment for order flow (same as Robinhood and TD Ameritrade)
  • M1 Plus (subscription fee that gets you higher interest rates and other additional perks).
  • M1 Credit Card (transaction fees and interest)

M1 Plus. M1 has been aggressively adding features and pushing their premium M1 Plus membership, which costs $10/month or $95/ year after an initial 3 month free trial. Essentially, it makes everything a little bit better, including access to their new high-yield savings account.

  • Access to high-yield savings (currently 5.00% APY as of 5/27/23). FDIC-insured up to $5 million.
  • Access to M1 credit card (2.5%, 5%, or 10% cash back at 70+ brands, no annual fee).
  • Lower rates on margin borrowing (1.5% rate discount).
  • Custodial accounts for kids.
  • Extra PM trade window.
  • Automated “smart” transfers.

Up to $500 New User deposit bonus. Deposit $10,000 or more within two weeks of opening your new M1 Brokerage Account and get a cash bonus of $75 – $500 deposited to that account. See deposit bonus promotion link for full details.

Up to $15,000 ACAT Transfer bonus. You can get up to $15,000 to invest when you
transfer a brokerage account to M1 by June 17, 2023. See ACAT transer promotion link for full details.

Bottom line. M1 Finance is a brokerage account that acts like a free, customizable robo-advisor with automatic rebalancing into a target portfolio. You control the model portfolio, and they do the tedious work. Great for implementation of a low-cost, index or passive ETF portfolio. I deposited part of my Roth IRA contribution with them.

Disclosure: I am now an affiliate of M1 Finance, and may be compensated if you click through my link and open a new account.

Also see: Big List of Free Stocks For New Commission-Free Brokerage Apps

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Investing
Last updated: May 30, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

529 College Savings Plans: All 50 States Tax Benefit Comparison (Updated 2023)

May 22, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 32 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

Updated for 2023. Morningstar is a great resource for research on 529 college savings plans, and they have just updated their article on state-specific 529 tax deductions: 529 Tax Benefits: How Does Your State Stack Up?.

When choosing a 529 college savings plan, you can open a 529 plan from any state (not just your own). However, each state can vary widely in what they offer in terms of tax deductions and/or tax credits. So how to do you choose?

  • No state tax? ➡ Just pick the best overall plan.
  • No special tax benefits (deduction or credit)? ➡ Just pick the best overall plan.
  • Home state offers tax parity? (the same tax benefits no matter which state’s plan you pick) ➡ Just pick the best overall plan.
  • Home state requires you to contribute to your home state plan to get the tax perk? ➡ Technically, you should compare the annual tax savings against any potential perks from the best overall plan (lower annual expenses, superior investment options). In most cases, I have found that if a state cares enough to offers a state tax deduction or tax credit, and you are contributing an amount under or around the max limit (ex. under $200 a month), then the in-state plan is most likely good enough and you should stick with it. The main exception is if you plan on funding your plan with a big contribution, where a lower expense ratio would really matter.

Want a deep dive? You can also learn more about 529 plans in great detail by downloading their updated Annual 529 College-Savings Plan Landscape.

If you are in the last situation in which you have to do some math, the Morningstar article also runs the numbers for a theoretical couple filing jointly with a gross annual income of $100,000 that deposits $3,000 a year (or $250 a month) into one beneficiary’s 529 account. The chart is useful to provide a quick idea of your state’s tax benefits at a glance, but I would make sure to run the numbers for your income and your expected annual contribution. This Vanguard state deduction calculator tool may be helpful to double-check your calculations.

Finally, note that some states will also recapture any tax benefits if you perform an outbound 529 rollover, or otherwise do not conform with federal tax laws regarding 529 distributions.

Top plans quick recap. Here are Morningstar’s top Gold and Silver-rated plans as of May 2023.

I personally invest in the Utah My529 Plan for my children due to their DIY glide path feature and DFA fund access, but my second choice would be the Vanguard Nevada 529 Plan if you want something that is more “set-and-forget”, especially if you already have other accounts at Vanguard. Both have shown an ongoing commitment to improving there product and lower expenses over time. I wouldn’t spend too much time splitting hairs – taking action and starting an automatic savings plan is the most critical decision.

Opening a plan and making any contribution also starts the 10-year clock on potential future 529-to-Roth IRA rollovers. Around May 29th (5/29) each year, there may be special “529 Day” promotions as well.

Filed Under: College & Education, Investing
Last updated: May 22, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Reader Questions: Worried About Debt Limit? Worried About Smaller Banks?

May 16, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 5 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

I’m probably dating myself using the image above. How old do you have to be to remember when MAD magazine was popular? In retrospect, the magazine served a very important purpose, which was basically to show kids the many tricks out there and how to be less gullible. From Robert Boyd of the LA Times (source):

The magazine instilled in me a habit of mind, a way of thinking about a world rife with false fronts, small print, deceptive ads, booby traps, treacherous language, double standards, half truths, subliminal pitches and product placements; it warned me that I was often merely the target of people who claimed to be my friend; it prompted me to mistrust authority, to read between the lines, to take nothing at face value, to see patterns in the often shoddy construction of movies and TV shows; and it got me to think critically in a way that few actual humans charged with my care ever bothered to.

As I’m old and a bit under the weather this week – though temporarily lucid thanks to behind-the-counter pseudoephedrine – if I end up rambling… that’s my excuse. Anyhow, I’ve been getting emails from two different camps in the past few months:

  • Don’t put your money in US Treasury bills, that’s risky. Haven’t you heard about the debt limit crisis?
  • Don’t put your money in non-huge banks, that’s risky. Haven’t you heard of those bank failures? You should keep your money in US Treasury bills.

Am I worried about the US debt limit?

No and yes. No, I am not worried that my Treasury bonds (and money market funds based on Treasury bonds) will fail to be paid back with interest. In fact, I’ve thought about buying some of those affected short-term T-Bills, but it wouldn’t be much additional benefit for my small amounts.

Yes, I am worried that this signals a high level of disfunction between our elected officials. Imagine my partner and I already previously agreed to a mortgage for the house, an auto loan for both our cars, and put shared household bills on the credit card. Is the best way to make ourselves more financially responsible to threaten not to pay the debt that we have already agreed to take on? We should certainly examine our future expenses closely, and government spending is an important topic. But what is the point of threatening to ruin our collective credit score by not paying our existing bills? Is it honorable to openly consider defaulting on your debts? The US enjoys a lot of benefits from its top credit rating. I’m disappointed.

Am I worried about having my personal money deposited at non-huge banks?

No. As long as they are under the covered FDIC-insurance limits of $250,000 per depositor, per insured bank, for each account ownership category. Both of these things (NCUA/FDIC-insured bank deposits and US Treasury bonds) are backed by the US government, which has the power to create as much fiat currency as it likes. The FDIC is quite good at transitioning if a bank failure does occur. So I’m personally not worried about either thing. I just opened a relatively large 5-year CD at 5.00% APY at a small, friendly credit union in Oxnard, CA with only a few physical branches (deal expired). I hope they in turn lend it out to some small businesses in their area.

If you can get past the paywall, read this interesting Bloomberg article (close alternative) about the smallest bank in the US. One full-time employee (the CEO), a part-time teller, no ATM, no website. I kind of want to open an account.

The thing is, for a business with a huge cash balance that is over the FDIC-insured limits, then it indeed might be rational to move that money into the safest possible bank. You’d think that these sorts of problems would be solved by now. Berkshire Hathaway rolls billions of Treasury bills every month. But that’s how it works sometimes. Problems are only faced after it becomes a painful issue. I believe they’ll figure it out.

Filed Under: Banking, Investing
Last updated: May 17, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Do US Stock Dividends Grow Faster Than Inflation? (1927-2021)

May 12, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 3 Comments
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The hard problem of retirement planning continues to be how to turn a pile of assets (like in a 401k plan) into the maximum reliable income stream for decades without running out of money. Historically, companies that pay a high-yet-reliable dividend have been referred to as “widow and orphan” stocks. The academic paper Why Dividends Matter by Paul Schultz explores the underpinnings of this practice, including the “implicit contract” between the company and shareholders that “you can consume at the level of the dividend for the foreseeable future without fear of running out of money.” The debate about investing based on dividends will not be resolved by this paper, but here are a few quotes:

It is not necessary to think that a practice of consuming only from dividends is a result of limited rationality, biases, or mental accounting. When firms establish a quarterly dividend, they implicitly tell investors that they can consume at the level of the dividend for the foreseeable future. So, investors who want to smooth consumption can do so by consuming dividends.

As a whole, the investors in this survey are far more concerned about the danger of depleting assets by selling stock, than by spending dividends. This is why investors like dividends. They allow to investors to smooth consumption by indicating how much they can consume without depleting assets.

Now that we have many ways to backtest historical stocks returns, the popular counter-argument is that we have other ways to decide how much is “safe” to withdraw, and that amount is often more that the current dividend yield available. We can simply some stock shares as needed if the dividend is not enough. Which is the better way to decide how much is safe to withdraw?

Historically, do dividend payouts keep up with inflation? This would seem to be important if investors are only spending the dividends every year. Otherwise, they would eventually need to sell shares of stock anyway. Table I of the paper “Changes in Dividends and Inflation” covers this using CRSP data for all US stocks. Hat tip to Klement on Investing, who converted Table I into a nice visual chart:

Over the past nearly 100 years, the dividend growth rate has mostly matched inflation. Dividend growth did fall behind inflation during the period of 1970s high inflation. In turn, dividends have grown much faster than (historically low) inflation in the last 20 years.

Here’s another chart from Hartford Funds which separates the portion of S&P 500 total market returns into share price appreciation and dividends.

I would note that these charts cover the broad US stock market, not just a subset of high-dividend stocks nor international stocks. I certainly don’t think we can get away with buying only the highest dividend-yielding stocks and calling it a day. However, I do believe that dividend payouts are is a useful data point to consider, amongst many others. I tend to pay attention to the dividend yield on the S&P 500 and also certain indexes like those tracked by the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF. I also expect the dividends on both to grow more or less with inflation over the long run.

Even Vanguard’s founder Jack Bogle had the following to say (source):

But you ought to think about all sources of your retirement income. Having said that, when you own an equity portfolio, don’t get into it for market reasons, get into it for income reasons. Oversimplifying, what you want to do when you retire is walk out to the mailbox on Social Security day and on dividend payment day for the funds—assuming they’re the same day—and make sure you have two envelopes out there. One is your fund dividend and the other is your Social Security check. The Social Security will keep up with inflation year after year, and dividends are likely to increase year after year. They have been going up. Every once in a while there is an interruption, such as the Great Depression of the early 1930s. And many bank stocks eliminated their dividends in 2008, so there was obviously a drop. But it has long since recovered, and then some.

Bet on the dividends, and not on the market price. You’ve got those two envelopes and that’s your retirement. If you have a pension plan (one that is not likely to go bankrupt—and a lot of them are likely to) that is a third envelope. You want to be concerned about whether you have enough income to pay utility bills, pay for your food, pay your rent or your mortgage, whatever it might be, every month. You want income to help you pay those bills. And in the retirement stage, that’s what investing should be about—regular checks from dividends and/or from Social Security and/or from a pension account.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement
Last updated: May 12, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes

May 11, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 2 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

The 2023 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting occurred on May, 6 2023, and while there are articles offering highlights (including this one), it’s never the same feeling as watching/listening to the actual thing. I always find a few things that mean something to me, even if just a small side remark, that don’t make it into the financial news headlines. Warren Buffet (92) and Charlie Munger (99) continue to impress with their amazing mental acuity and stamina.

CNBC again has the rights to record and host the full video and transcripts (morning session, afternoon session) and they did a nice job with syncing the text and sound on the afternoon session (the morning one didn’t work for me). Here are a few personal takeaways and notes.

Overall, I am reminded that Buffett regards Berkshire Hathaway as his life’s work and masterpiece. He may not have much time left to paint, but it is already beautifully constructed. It is built to prosper in the long-term, but also to withstand anything thrown at it in the short-term. This is how I wish to build up my family’s finances as well. A large engine of productive investments that create growing profits and cashflow. Always having a sizable cash holding as well, never having worry about market crashes or liquidity needs. Berkshire sells insurance to cover the rare events, and I buy them to protect us from those types of events (life, home, auto liability, umbrella).

Autopilot. Buffett points out that it will be hard to judge how well his successors are doing, as by design, Berkshire will operate very well even mostly on auto-pilot. The subsidiary companies all have their own managers. The stocks are bought with the intention of holding for a long time if not forever. This reminds me that I should make our finances more auto-pilot as well. I may enjoy the micro-management now, but I worry that I am making things too complicated in a situation where I’m not around.

The benefits of being financially independent. No boss above telling you what to do, but also no direct customers to please.

[Warren Buffett speaking about Charlier Munger] He didn’t want to sell his time, maybe at 20 bucks an hour or something, to people he thought were making the wrong the decisions. And he knew more about it than they did. And that just did not strike him as a good way to go through life. And I think he’s probably right on that.

I think he’d have really gotten to be miserable if he had to keep doing that. It’s just no fun. It’d be like me giving investment advice to somebody that — or taking it from somebody. I just wouldn’t want to do it. And Charlie figured that out. And so, we decided to work for ourselves. And this worked. Been happy, happily ever after.

Charlie Munger was a successful lawyer, but he didn’t want to give advice to people who often wouldn’t take it. Warren Buffett could have been a investment manager or financial advisor, but he also didn’t want to give advice to people who often wouldn’t take it. I have thought about becoming a financial advisor of some sort, but I think it would be very difficult to spend your time carefully crafting advice and then seeing someone just do the opposite. As a self-directed investor, I enjoy the fact that I can do my own research, make my own decisions, and implement them as I wish. It takes a while to build up your first $100,000, but there is a reason why his biography is called The Snowball.

Berkshire shareholders as the frugal millionaires. I have to admit, I enjoy the stereotype that Berkshire Hathaway shareholders tend to be frugal, practical, and not focused on outward appearances. Here’s a funny anecdote that speaks to that (even though Munger now flies NetJets, a Berkshire subsidiary).

CHARLIE MUNGER: I used to come to the Berkshire annual meetings on coach from Los Angeles. And it was full of rich stockholders. And they would clap when I came into the coach section. I really liked that. (LAUGHTER) (APPLAUSE)

How to live a good and successful life. Buffett has said this quote before, but it’s a good one:

…you should write your obituary and then try and figure out how to live up to it.

Charlie Munger expands:

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it’s so simple to spend less than you earn, and invest shrewdly, and avoid toxic people and toxic activities, and try and keep learning all your life, et cetera, et cetera, and do a lot of deferred gratification because you prefer life that way. And if you do all those things, you are almost certain to succeed. And if you don’t, you’re going to need a lot of luck. And you don’t want to need a lot of luck. You want to go into a game where you’re very likely to win without having any unusual luck.

… the toxic people who are trying to fool you or lie to you or aren’t reliable in meeting their commitments. A great lesson of life is get them the hell out of your life. […] And do it fast. […] I don’t mind a little tact. Or even a little financial cost. But the question is getting them the hell out of your life.

Again, my favorite way is to listen to the audio track of the CNBC or YouTube videos in the car like a podcast over multiple days. If you’d rather read more detailed notes, check out the CNBC Liveblog, Kingswell and Rational Walk.

Filed Under: Investing
Last updated: May 11, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Fidelity Money Transfer Lockdown: Block Fraudulent ACAT Transfer Brokerage Scams

May 4, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 16 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

For the average person, the most valuable information may be knowing how to identify and avoid the most current financial scams. Nearly everyone I know has either been targeted or has become a victim of one of these scams, and I am betting many people who lost money are too embarrassed to admit it publicly. (Literally in the middle of writing this post, I received another scam call.)

One scam that you may not have heard of is the ACAT Transfer scam. A thief will obtain enough of your personal information to open a new E*Trade brokerage account, and then they will request an ACAT transfer of the entire contents of your existing brokerage account (ex. Fidelity) to that new fake E*Trade account which they control. At this point, they can quickly liquidate the account and send the money elsewhere. The key here is that they just need to be able to open an empty, new brokerage account in your name plus find your Fidelity account numbers from a statement. They don’t need your Fidelity username and password (or pass two-factor authentication).

Even more importantly, you won’t notice unless you log into your account. Opening a new E*Trade or other brokerage account will not trigger a credit alert or most identity protection services. Many brokers (see below) will process an outgoing ACAT transfer without confirming with you or even notifying you in any way. If you don’t look at your statements closely, it may be months or longer before you notice.

You can read about the experiences of multiple victims in this Reddit thread. Here’s a partial quote in case the thread is deleted.

Lost around 150k worth of stock from my fidelity brokerage account to an online scam (ACATS Transfer)

My husband has a fidelity brokerage account and last month all his shares were transferred out of his account. Upon calling the customer care, we were told that his stocks were transferred by him to an account with eTrade.

We communicated that we don’t have any e-trade account and the transfer was not initiated by us. We were shocked that no notification/intimation was sent to us before completing the transfer and no authorization was required!!

It looks like a fake account was created in his name with eTrade which initiated an account transfer. He did not receive any request/emails/text from Fidelity that the stocks are being moved. The etrade account has been frozen but the stocks are already sold and proceeds are transferred to another account.

The good news is that the original poster was eventually able to get back their funds, although it must have been a very stressful two months. It is not clear if Fidelity reimbursed them out of their own pockets or were able to reverse the transactions.

We were able to recover the stocks after waiting and following up for 2 months. Fidelity reps were able able to help us.

The discussion pointed out the potential usefulness of a relatively unique Fidelity feature called Money Transfer Lockdown (Fidelity login required). Here is a summary of the features and how to activate it per Fidelity:

Money Transfer Lockdown, an additional security measure Fidelity provides to its customers, may affect or disallow certain types of transactions. In order to transfer between two of your Fidelity accounts (In your example brokerage and CMA) when Money Transfer Lockdown is enabled, you will need to temporarily disable the feature prior to making the transaction. Once you have successfully made the transfer, you can enable the lockdown again by logging in into your Fidelity.com account anytime and visit “Security Center” from your “Profile” page.

Protected Transactions:

  • Outbound money transfers
  • Transfers between Fidelity accounts
  • Transfer of shares and assets to other institutions
  • Individual withdrawals (previously scheduled EFT transfers from an account might still be processed)

Unaffected Transactions:

  • Deposits or transfers into a Fidelity account
  • Checkwriting and direct debits
  • Debit/ATM transactions
  • Trading
  • Scheduled Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) or Personal Automatic Withdrawal plan
  • BillPay

A member of the Bogleheads forum helpfully tested out this service by attempting various transfers out of their “locked” Fidelity account. The Money Transfer Lockdown service did successfully block a legitimate ACAT transfer request from another brokerage. However, ACH pulls went through for those accounts that have routing and account numbers like a traditional bank account. Here are their brief conclusions:

Fidelity’s account lockdown blocks fraudulent ACATS pulls. It is an excellent, differential feature that Schwab and Vanguard don’t have. However, it has some limitations and vulnerabilities. It provides no extra security against fraudulent push of assets and doesn’t block fraudulent ACH pulls. To deal with ACH limitations, using CMA as an intermediary account from brokerage to the external world may be prudent.

As a result, I have taken to using the Money Transfer Lockdown service on all available account types (doesn’t work on 401k accounts, for example). It’s a little extra hassle, but definitely worth the added peace of mind. I hope that Vanguard and other brokers will add a similar feature to make it harder to perform an ACAT transfer without notice. I also believe that Fidelity would do a much better job of working to restore my assets than any other broker, especially the smaller brokers.

Now, if someone gains full access to your Fidelity account (username + password + 2FA), they can simply turn off the Lockdown feature. However, every time I do that I get both a text and an e-mail, so hopefully that will provide early enough notice to block any fraudulent transfers, or at least make the clawback faster. In addition, I feel that most people need to make sure they have a difficult PIN number on their phone, as login security is quickly coming down to having your phone as a type of physical “key”.

The quiet nature of ACAT transfer is what makes this scam possible! They are taking advantage of standard industry practice that is a weak point in financial security. The scammers all know this. We need to change this process to increase security. First, I’ve never had a brokerage account opening trigger any credit alert or identity theft monitoring service. Second, I recently transferred a significant amount of assets to Fidelity from Public using ACAT, and Public did not send me a single email, text, or phone call. My Public account was simply zero one day. I did legitimately request this transfer, but what if I didn’t?!?

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement
Last updated: May 5, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Worried About Unused 529 Funds? New 529 to Roth IRA Rollover Option

May 3, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 7 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

One of the concerns about contributing to 529 plan for college savings is that you won’t end up using all the money and end up being hit with additional taxes (at ordinary income rates) and penalties on an non-qualified withdrawal. The funds potentially would have been better off simply invested in a taxable brokerage account (and long-term capital gains rates).

This was partially addressed within the SECURE 2.0 Act of 2022, part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CAA) of 2023. Specifically, Section 126 [PDF link], “Special Rules for Certain Distributions from Long-term Qualified Tuition Programs to Roth IRAs”, which adds the ability to roll your 529 funds into a Roth IRA both tax-free and penalty-free starting in 2024. Kitces.com covers many of the major points. Here is a quick summary of the rollover requirements:

  • The Roth IRA receiving the rollover money must be owned by the beneficiary of the 529 plan. (Unless the beneficiary is also the owner, the money can’t go to the owner’s Roth IRA.)
  • The 529 plan must have been open for at least 15 years.
  • The rollover amount must have been in the 529 account for at least 5 years before your distribution date (contributions and attached earnings).
  • The annual rollover amount is limited to annual IRA contribution limits, and is reduced by any “regular” Roth IRA contributions made during the tax year. (You are not able to exceed the usual max contribution limits. However, the income (MAGI) limits that usually lower the contribution limits due to high income do not apply.)
  • The Roth IRA owner still needs to earn taxable income, at least equal to the amount of the rollover.
  • The maximum lifetime amount that can be moved from a 529 plan to a Roth IRA is $35,000 per person. (This may not be as much in 15+ years if they don’t increase it with inflation.)

In general, this seems like a reasonable way to alleviate the over-contribution concerns, although the money must still technically go to the beneficiary (usually the kid) and not the owner (usually the parent or grandparent). Previously, options for leftover money included graduate school, changing the beneficiary to another family member or future grandchild, or paying back up to $10,000 in qualified student loans.

There are a few interesting, potential wrinkles that a few readers have pointed out:

  • Making yourself both owner and beneficiary to fund future Roth IRA contributions for yourself (even with no kids). As you aren’t really increasing the total amount you are able to stuff into a Roth IRA in the future, the primary benefit is basically to access the tax-deferral benefit early. For example, you could put in $2,000 today and expect to roll over $6,000 in 15 years (7.6% annualized return). The exception may be if you expect not to be able to do Roth IRA contributions in the future because your income is too high AND the Backdoor Roth IRA method is not available to you. Still, 15 years is a long time to wait, and the law may change in the future to restrict this type of move. In such a case, it may backfire and subject you to taxes and penalties.
  • Planning to change the beneficiary from kid to yourself later on. Maybe you don’t want your kid to have the unspent funds, and plan to simply change the beneficiary to yourself later on. However, it’s not 100% clear if beneficiary changes will reset the 15-year clock or otherwise affect rollover eligibility. The law specifically restricted the rollover
  • Contributing extra money for the specific purpose of early funding for your children’s Roth IRAs. This might spur higher-income parents to put even more money into their 529s on purpose, as you are essentially indirectly able to fund a Roth IRA with tax-deferred growth for your kid way before they have earned income. When they eventually do have any form of earned income from a part-time or entry-level job in their teens or early 20s, the money can just roll into their Roth IRA officially (up to the limits).

I don’t have any immediate plans to take advantage of any of these potential scenarios, but taken together it does make me feel better about the 529 contributions that I have already made. Which I suppose is the overall idea?

In terms of other actionable advice, it may be worth it to start a 529 for each child immediately or as soon as possible, even if only putting in $25 or whatever is the minimum amount, just to start the 15 year clock in case you do want to take advantage of this feature down the road. There are countless examples out there of the benefit of starting the compounding early, especially when it can keep growing tax-free forever.

Filed Under: College & Education, Family, Investing, Retirement
Last updated: May 3, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Best Interest Rates on Cash – May 2023

May 1, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 9 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

Here’s my monthly roundup of the best interest rates on cash as of May 2023, roughly sorted from shortest to longest maturities. We all need some safe assets for cash reserves or portfolio stability, and there are often lesser-known opportunities available to individual investors. Check out my Ultimate Rate-Chaser Calculator to see how much extra interest you could earn. Rates listed are available to everyone nationwide. Rates checked as of 5/1/2023.

TL;DR: 5% APY available on liquid savings. 5% APY available on multiple short-term CDs. Compare against Treasury bills and bonds at every maturity.

Fintech accounts
Available only to individual investors, fintech companies often pay higher-than-market rates in order to achieve fast short-term growth (often using venture capital). “Fintech” is usually a software layer on top of a partner bank’s FDIC insurance.

  • 5.05% APY ($1 minimum). SaveBetter lets you switch between different FDIC-insured banks and NCUA-insured credit unions easily without opening a new account every time, and their liquid savings rates currently top out at 5.05% APY. See my SaveBetter review for details. SaveBetter does not charge a fee to switch between banks.
  • 5.10% APY (before fees). MaxMyInterest is another service that allows you to access and switch between different FDIC-insured banks. You can view their current banks and APYs here. As of 5/1/23, the highest rate is from Customers Bank at 5.10% APY. However, note that they charge a membership fee of 0.04% per quarter, or 0.16% per year (subject to $20 minimum per quarter, or $80 per year). That means if you have a $10,000 balance, then $80 a year = 0.80% per year. You are allowed to cancel the service and keep the bank accounts, but then you may lose their specially-negotiated rates and cannot switch between banks anymore.
  • 5% on up to $25,000, then 4% up to $250k. Juno now pays 5% on all cash deposits up to $25,000 and 4% on cash deposits from $25,001 up to $250,000. No direct deposits required. This fintech has crypto exposure, please see my Juno review for details.

High-yield savings accounts
Since the huge megabanks STILL pay essentially no interest, everyone should have a separate, no-fee online savings account to piggy-back onto your existing checking account. The interest rates on savings accounts can drop at any time, so I list the top rates as well as competitive rates from banks with a history of competitive rates. Some banks will bait you with a temporary top rate and then lower the rates in the hopes that you are too lazy to leave.

  • The leapfrogging to be the temporary “top” rate continues. Newtek Bank at 5.00% APY. Notice that last month’s leader, UFD Direct, has since dropped down to 4.81% APY. CIT Platinum Savings at 4.75% APY with $5,000+ balance.
  • SoFi Bank is now up to 4.20% APY + up to $275 new account bonus with direct deposit. You must maintain a direct deposit of any amount each month for the higher APY. SoFi has their own bank charter now so no longer a fintech by my definition. See details at $25 + $250 SoFi Money new account and deposit bonus.
  • There are several other established high-yield savings accounts at 3.75%+ APY that aren’t the absolute top rate, but historically do keep it relatively competitive for those that don’t want to keep switching banks.

Short-term guaranteed rates (1 year and under)
A common question is what to do with a big pile of cash that you’re waiting to deploy shortly (plan to buy a house soon, just sold your house, just sold your business, legal settlement, inheritance). My usual advice is to keep things simple and take your time. If not a savings account, then put it in a flexible short-term CD under the FDIC limits until you have a plan.

  • No Penalty CDs offer a fixed interest rate that can never go down, but you can still take out your money (once) without any fees if you want to use it elsewhere. CIT Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 4.80% APY with a $1,000 minimum deposit. Ally Bank has a 11-month No Penalty CD at 4.25% APY for all balance tiers. Marcus has a 13-month No Penalty CD at 4.15% APY with a $500 minimum deposit. You may wish to open multiple CDs in smaller increments for more flexibility.
  • Blue FCU via SaveBetter has a 9-month No Penalty CD at 5.00% APY. Minimum opening deposit is $1. No early withdrawal penalty. Withdrawals may be made 30 days after opening.
  • BrioDirect has a 12-month certificate at 5.25% APY. $500 minimum. Early withdrawal penalty is 90 days of interest.

Money market mutual funds + Ultra-short bond ETFs*
Many brokerage firms that pay out very little interest on their default cash sweep funds (and keep the difference for themselves). * Money market mutual funds are regulated, but ultimately not FDIC-insured, so I would still stick with highly reputable firms. I am including a few ultra-short bond ETFs as they may be your best cash alternative in a brokerage account, but they may experience losses.

  • Vanguard Federal Money Market Fund is the default sweep option for Vanguard brokerage accounts, which has an SEC yield of 4.78%. Odds are this is much higher than your own broker’s default cash sweep interest rate.
  • The PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active Bond ETF (MINT) has a 5.17% SEC yield and the iShares Short Maturity Bond ETF (NEAR) has a 5.12% SEC yield while holding a portfolio of investment-grade bonds with an average duration of ~6 months.

Treasury Bills and Ultra-short Treasury ETFs
Another option is to buy individual Treasury bills which come in a variety of maturities from 4-weeks to 52-weeks and are fully backed by the US government. You can also invest in ETFs that hold a rotating basket of short-term Treasury Bills for you, while charging a small management fee for doing so. T-bill interest is exempt from state and local income taxes.

  • You can build your own T-Bill ladder at TreasuryDirect.gov or via a brokerage account with a bond desk like Vanguard and Fidelity. Here are the current Treasury Bill rates. As of 5/1/23, a new 4-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.41% annualized interest and a 52-week T-Bill had the equivalent of 4.87% annualized interest.
  • The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) has a 4.69% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.10 years. SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) has a 4.55% SEC yield and effective duration of 0.08 years.

US Savings Bonds
Series I Savings Bonds offer rates that are linked to inflation and backed by the US government. You must hold them for at least a year. If you redeem them within 5 years there is a penalty of the last 3 months of interest. The annual purchase limit for electronic I bonds is $10,000 per Social Security Number, available online at TreasuryDirect.gov. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888.

  • “I Bonds” bought between May 2023 and October 2023 will earn a 4.30% rate for the first six months. The rate of the subsequent 6-month period will be based on inflation again. More on Savings Bonds here.
  • In mid-October 2023, the CPI will be announced and you will have a short period where you will have a very close estimate of the rate for the next 12 months. I will have another post up at that time.
  • See below about EE Bonds as a potential long-term bond alternative.

Rewards checking accounts
These unique checking accounts pay above-average interest rates, but with unique risks. You have to jump through certain hoops which usually involve 10+ debit card purchases each cycle, a certain number of ACH/direct deposits, and/or a certain number of logins per month. If you make a mistake (or they judge that you did) you risk earning zero interest for that month. Some folks don’t mind the extra work and attention required, while others would rather not bother. Rates can also drop suddenly, leaving a “bait-and-switch” feeling.

  • Genisys Credit Union pays 5.25% APY on up to $7,500 if you make 10 debit card purchases of $5+ each, and opt into receive only online statements. Anyone can join this credit union via $5 membership fee to join partner organization.
  • Pelican State Credit Union pays 5.50% APY on up to $10,000 if you make 15 debit card purchases, opt into online statements, and make at least 1 direct deposit, online bill payment, or automatic payment (ACH) per statement cycle. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization membership.
  • The Bank of Denver pays 5.00% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 12 debit card purchases of $5+ each, receive only online statements, and make at least 1 ACH credit or debit transaction per statement cycle. Thanks to reader Bill for the updated info.
  • All America/Redneck Bank pays 5.05% APY on up to $15,000 if you make 10 debit card purchases each monthly cycle with online statements.
  • Presidential Bank pays 4.625% APY on balances between $500 and up to $25,000 (3.625% APY above that) if you maintain a $500+ direct deposit and at least 7 electronic withdrawals per month (ATM, POS, ACH and Billpay counts).
  • Find a locally-restricted rewards checking account at DepositAccounts.

Certificates of deposit (greater than 1 year)
CDs offer higher rates, but come with an early withdrawal penalty. By finding a bank CD with a reasonable early withdrawal penalty, you can enjoy higher rates but maintain access in a true emergency. Alternatively, consider building a CD ladder of different maturity lengths (ex. 1/2/3/4/5-years) such that you have access to part of the ladder each year, but your blended interest rate is higher than a savings account. When one CD matures, use that money to buy another 5-year CD to keep the ladder going. Some CDs also offer “add-ons” where you can deposit more funds if rates drop.

  • Sallie Mae Bank via SaveBetter has a 27-month CD at 5.15% APY. $1 minimum. Early withdrawal penalty is 180 days of simple interest.
  • Credit Human has 18- to 23-month CDs at 5.15% APY and 24 to 35-month CDs at 4.90% APY. $500 minimum to open. The early withdrawal penalty is 270 days of interest for 12- to 35-month terms. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization (no fee).
  • Lafayette Federal Credit Union has a 5-year certificate at 4.68% APY ($500 min), 4-year at 4.73% APY, 3-year at 4.84% APY, 2-year at 4.89% APY, and 1-year at 4.99% APY. They also have jumbo certificates with $100,000 minimums at even higher rates. The early withdrawal penalty for the 5-year is very high at 600 days of interest. Anyone can join this credit union via partner organization ($10 one-time fee).
  • You can buy certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. You may need an account to see the rates. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance and easy laddering, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. Right now, I see a 5-year non-callable CD at 4.40% APY (callable: no, call protection: yes). Both Vanguard and Fidelity will list higher rates from callable CDs, which importantly means they can call back your CD if rates drop later.

Longer-term Instruments
I’d use these with caution due to increased interest rate risk, but I still track them to see the rest of the current yield curve.

  • Willing to lock up your money for 10 years? You can buy long-term certificates of deposit via the bond desks of Vanguard and Fidelity. These “brokered CDs” offer FDIC insurance, but they don’t come with predictable early withdrawal penalties. You might find something that pays more than your other brokerage cash and Treasury options. Right now, I see a 10-year CDs at (none available, non-callable) vs. 3.57% for a 10-year Treasury. Watch out for higher rates from callable CDs where they can call your CD back if interest rates drop.
  • How about two decades? Series EE Savings Bonds are not indexed to inflation, but they have a unique guarantee that the value will double in value in 20 years, which equals a guaranteed return of 3.5% a year. However, if you don’t hold for that long, you’ll be stuck with the normal rate, currently 2.50% for EE bonds issued from May 2023 to October 2023. As of 5/1/23, the 20-year Treasury Bond rate was 3.95%.

All rates were checked as of 5/1/2023.

Filed Under: Banking, Deals & Offers, Investing
Last updated: May 1, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Savings I Bonds May 2023 Inflation Rate: 0.90% Fixed, 4.30% Total Composite Rates

April 30, 2023 By Jonathan Ping 8 Comments
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

May 2023 fixed rate will be 0.90%, total composite rate is 4.30% for next 6 months. For Savings I bonds bought from May 1, 2023 through October 31, 2023, the fixed rate will be 0.90% and the total composite rate will be 4.30%. The semi-annual inflation rate is 1.69% as predicted (3.38% annually), but the full composite rate is dependent on the fixed rate for each specific savings bond and so it is a little bit higher.

Every single I bond will earn this inflation rate of ~3.40% eventually for 6 months, depending on the initial purchase month. The fixed rate was higher than I predicted, although still a bit lower than short-term TIPS yields. You may wish to wait until October if you don’t like what you see right now. See you again in mid-October for the next early prediction for November 2022.

Original post from 4/12/23:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. With a holding period from 12 months to 30 years, you could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were just announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the May 2023 savings bond rates a couple of weeks before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what a April 2023 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a May 2023 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. September 2022 CPI-U was 296.808. March 2023 CPI-U was 301.836, for a semi-annual increase of 1.69%. Using the official formula, the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle will be ~3.38%. You add the fixed and variable rates to get the total interest rate. The fixed rate hasn’t been above 0.50% in over a decade, but if you have an older savings bond, your fixed rate may be up to 3.60%.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until after 12 months of ownership, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A simple “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month – same as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.

Buying in April 2023. If you buy before the end of April, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.40%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 0.40 + 6.49 = 6.89% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.40 + 3.39 = 3.79%.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on April 30th, 2023 and sell on April 1st, 2024, I estimate that you’ll earn a ~4.48% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. If you theoretically buy on April 30th, 2023 and sell on July 1, 2024, you’ll earn a ~5.07% annualized return for an 14-month holding period. Comparing with the best interest rates as of April 2023, these short-term rates are roughly on par on what is available via regular nominal Treasury bonds and other deposit accounts.

Buying in May 2023. If you buy in May 2023, you will get 3.38% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is officially unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS. My rough guess is somewhere between 0.2% and 0.5%. The current real yield on short-term TIPS is lower than it was during the last reset, when the fixed rate was set at 0.4%. Every six months after your purchase, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (based on purchase month, look it up here) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%). So if your fixed rate was 1%, you’ll be earning a 1.00 + 3.38 = 4.38% rate for six months.

Buy now or wait? If you buy in April, you will get the remnants of the last period of higher inflation, and a fixed rate that won’t change much for May. If you wait until May, there may be a small possibility that the fixed rate might go up, but even if it does, it will take a while for that to breakeven due to the lower initial inflation rate. Therefore, my opinion is that I would purchase now in April. Note that the real yields on TIPS are currently about 1.2% for a 5-year term, higher than the fixed rate for I bonds.

Unique features. I have a separate post on reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and educational tax benefits.

Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my long-term investment portfolio.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. You can only buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper I bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888. If you have children, you may be able to buy additional savings bonds by using a minor’s Social Security Number. TheFinanceBuff has a nice post on gifting options if you are a couple and want to frontload your purchases now. TreasuryDirect also allows trust accounts to purchase savings bonds.

Note: Opening a TreasuryDirect account can sometimes be a hassle as they may ask for a medallion signature guarantee which requires a visit to a physical bank or credit union and snail mail. This doesn’t apply to everyone and seems to have gotten better recently, but the takeaway is don’t wait until the last minute.

Bottom line. Savings I bonds are a unique, low-risk investment that are linked to inflation and only available to individual investors. You can only purchase them online at TreasuryDirect.gov, with the exception of paper bonds via tax refund. For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1950 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury – source]

Filed Under: Banking, Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds
Last updated: April 30, 2023
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards, and may receive a commission from card issuers. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned. MyMoneyBlog.com is also a member of the Amazon Associate Program, and if you click through to Amazon and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission. Thank you for your support.

Charlie Munger Fireside Chat with Todd Combs (April 2022): Full Recording and Transcript

April 19, 2023 By Jonathan Ping Leave a Comment
My Money Blog has partnered with CardRatings and Credit-Land for selected credit cards and may receive a commission. All opinions expressed are the author’s alone, and has not been provided nor approved by any of the companies mentioned.

Charlie Munger held a fireside chat with Todd Combs back in April 2022 as part of a Singleton Prize for CEO Excellence event, and more recently a full audio recording and full text transcript has been made available. The talk covered a variety of different topics, which fans of Berkshire Hathaway/Buffett/Munger-style wisdom will likely value. Found via Neckar and Kingswell (both excellent substacks on value investing topics).

I enjoyed this quote about the power of combining internal motivation and long attention span:

Warren was around me and he used to say, “You really don’t need to be very smart to be a very successful investor.” And I think Warren was right. It’s a field where the temperament is, it’s good to have the extra mental horsepower that Henry Singleton had. That is helpful, but it’s perfectly possible to do splendidly well if you have the right temperament. Just go at it over a long time. You talked about me. I’m not a polymath. What I am is a guy who has been able to take moderate obsession and a long attention span and turn them into pretty good results. Of course, a long attention span will help you a lot, if you’re reasonably smart.

[…] I don’t know how to fix [inaudible]. I’d love to be able to wave my hand and solve that problem, but I don’t think that’s given to man, to fix some of those problems. So I just stay away from the problems that can’t be fixed and pick the ones that can – I don’t like unlimited failure. I don’t want to fish forever and never catch a fish. I have to have some reinforcement. And so I pick some things that can be done and do them. But I do think that if you’re reasonably obsessed with something, even if it’s intermittent, and you have a long attention span, you keep working over the serious problems, that you’ll stumble into an answer. That’s half the secret of life.

However, I also noticed he added in a point about picking the right problem to solve. I’ve previously shared this Venn diagram by Bud Caddell:

caddell620

You do need to pick something where you have a natural “obsession” or “passion” because it will help you keep at it and not give up. However, most mortals should add in a bit of practicality and pick an area for which you at least have a little bit of talent and that isn’t completely impossible or saturated with competition.

Filed Under: Career, Investing
Last updated: April 19, 2023
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