Stuck on a Hard 50/50 Decision? Pick the Change, Avoid the Status Quo

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The recently-republished Quartz article An economist’s rule for making tough life decisions draws from research by Steven Levitt, perhaps best-known for being co-author of the book Freakonomics.

The study asked people who were having a hard time making a decision to participate in a randomized digital coin toss on the website FreakonomicsExperiments.com. People asked questions ranging from “Should I quit my job?” to “Should I break up with my significant other?” and “Should I go back to school?” Heads meant they should take action. Tails, they stuck with the status quo.

Ultimately, 20,000 coins were flipped—and people who got heads and made a big change reported being significantly happier than they were before, both two months and six months later.

Here’s the takeaway, direct from Steven Levitt:

A good rule of thumb in decision making is, whenever you cannot decide what you should do, choose the action that represents a change, rather than continuing the status quo.

Here’s another version of the takeaway, per the article author Sarah Todd:

If the choice is between action and inaction, and you’re genuinely unsure about what to do, choose action.

Again, this should be the tie-breaker. Obviously, if you are completely happy with the status quo, then there is no reason for change.

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Comments

  1. This is an interesting thought experiment to gauge how risk adverse someone is. The maxim “better the devil you know than the devil you don’t” would suggest sticking with the status quo. I’m a highly logical person that’s tends to stick with the status quo, so maybe I’ll start relying on the empirical evidence from this article rather than the mere theory behind the maxim!

  2. Seems like there could be some self-selection bias present. Ie. those who signed up for this study wanted to make the change but needed a “kick” to do it

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