Archives for July 2008

DayDreaming Again About Early Retirement

There’s nothing like going back to work on a Monday after a nice long holiday weekend to make you daydream about leaving the rat race behind. I would like to think that I am already on the path to early retirement, but I often like to hash out “The Plan”.

Ages 30-45: Live simply. Buy a home you can afford with a 15-year mortgage. Yes, you can get approved for a larger loan with a 30-year amortization. Homes are a huge expense, and just because someone will let you doesn’t mean you should take on that much debt. If you artificially restrict yourself to what you can afford with a 15-year amortization, you’ll end up with something that can easily be paid off early.

Yes, taking advantage of low fixed interest rate for 30-year mortgage can be argued to be advantageous on a mathematical level. But I am still enamored with the simplified cashflow situation once this huge monthly expense is taken away. Right now, a full 2/3rds of my monthly expenses go towards housing costs.*

Live frugally, try to save regularly for retirement, advance in career and get pay hikes, raise kids, still enjoy life, yada yada.

Ages 45-65: Find consulting or part-time work which will cover remaining expenses. Now, after 15 years, I will only have to pay for everything else – property taxes, car, utilities, food, etc. This should only run about $35,000 a year. Lower required expenses means lower required income, which means I pay a lot less in income taxes. Split between my wife and I, we’d only need to find jobs that pay about $25,000 gross each per year. (Numbers will need to be adjusted for inflation.)

This opens up so much flexibility. Despite my beach bum aspirations, I already know that you can’t spend all day at the beach. There are so many alternative business and job ideas that we would enjoy doing, but currently wouldn’t dream of doing because we make so much more money doing what we do now. Jobs with less hours, less commuting, less dealing with stupid people. The money that we have saved up in tax-deferred accounts should remain untouched, and we will still add as possible.

Ages 65+: Work as possible based on health, start taking Social Security, withdrawing from retirement accounts I know that most young people are skeptical of Social Security, but in reality I doubt it is going to go away for people with moderate incomes. It will simply be too critical a safety net in the age of self-funded retirements. I can see there being a phase-out for high income earners (it’d be very difficult to phase out based on net worth) – but again, without a mortgage, we won’t need a high income. The current average Social Security check is $1,000 per month, or $12,000 per year. If both of us received that, that would already cover 50% of our expenses.

These are all rough numbers and you never know what life will throw at you, but it’s nice to have goals. 😀

* No, you don’t necessarily need to buy a house to retire early. But it fits into my Plan nicely.

Earn 9,999 Delta SkyMiles With 1-Day Car Rental

If you collect Delta SkyMiles like I do, here is a peculiar offer from Delta and Avis/Budget. You can actually earn 9,999 bonus miles for making a single car rental:

Now through August 1, 2008, you can earn 9,999 bonus miles on your next rental placed through delta.com (maximum of 3 bonuses total per customer on both Avis and Budget. […] To qualify for this promotion, you must make your Avis or Budget rental reservation through delta.com with your SkyMiles number. […] Offer may not be used in conjunction with any other AWD number, promotion or offer.

I guess it is to promote getting a car rental from the Delta website. Just make up a flight to the airport you want to rent from, you don’t need to book a flight at the same time. With flights these days costing so much, using frequent flyer miles has become a better deal again. If you value your miles at a conservative penny per mile (30,000 miles = $300 ticket), then this is like earning a $100 bonus for a 1-day car rental. If you needed to rent a car anyways, you probably just got a a free rental! If your city has cheap rates, you could theoretically even rent a car for no reason and still come out ahead… You can repeat 3 times until 8/1.

A Better Credit Card For Delta Regulars
You may not know that you can get 1.25 Delta Skymiles per dollar spent with the Starwood American Express Card, which is 25% more than the 1 mile per dollar from the regular Delta Airlines – Gold Delta SkyMiles® Credit Card (which a lot of people I know have) and even has a lower annual fee.

However, if you fly with a partner a lot on Delta it may be worthwhile to upgrade to the Delta Platinum AMEX because you get a free companion ticket voucher each year. Again, with rising ticket prices this voucher is very valuable. I just used one of these vouchers (via my parents) to travel cross-country for a wedding in November, and they didn’t make me buy an overly expensive base ticket – it was the lowest price shown online. Saved me nearly $500!

Finally, if you have Membership Rewards points from American Express lying around, you can currently get a 20% bonus on transfers into Delta Skymiles. So 1 MR point = 1.2 SkyMiles until 7/31.

How To Save Money By Making Your Own Homemade Fireworks

First, you will need to find some industrial fertilizer and plain sugar to make some flash powder. Next, you should make sure your fire extinguisher is properly maintained and filled.

Okay, so I’m kidding. Perhaps we should just stick to watching the nice public fireworks displays. Otherwise my next post might be “How to lose your entire net worth through a negligence lawsuit!” 😀 Happy Independence Day!

July 2008 Financial Status / Net Worth Update

Net Worth Chart July 2008

Credit Card Debt
If you’re a new reader, let me start out as usual by explaining the credit card debt. I’m actually taking money from 0% APR balance transfer offers and instead of spending it, I am placing it in high-yield savings accounts that actually earn 3-4% interest or more, and keeping the difference as profit. Along with other deals that I blog about, this helps me earn extra side income of thousands of dollars a year. Recently I put together a series of step-by-step posts on how I do this. Please check it out first if you have any questions. This is why, although I have the ability to pay the credit card balances off, I choose not to.

Retirement and Brokerage accounts
Apparently this was the worst June since the Great Depression, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all losing around 9 to 10% last month alone. But it was only the worst June, not the worst month ever. Our overall portfolio didn’t fair quite so poorly due to our diversification into international stocks and bonds, but still sank nearly $7,000 in one month.

However, I remain confident in the fact that a globally diversified portfolio will perform adequately well over my time horizon of 20+ years. Add in the fact that shuffling investments around only serves to worsen my chances, and you get my same old brilliant plan of… doing nothing. I seriously had to skip over half of my financial magazines this month, with all their suggestions for “recession-proof” stocks.

Cash Savings and Emergency Funds
Our mid-term goal is to have $30,000 in net cash put aside for emergencies, for example if both of us find ourselves unemployed for an extended period and even have to start paying for things like health insurance on our own. We are now nearly 80% there at $23,810. After this is done, then I will focus on more contributions to my Self-Employed 401(k) plan at Fidelity. My timing just happened to work out well so far, with us accumulating cash while the markets are dropping.

Home Equity
Another tiny ~$500 of loan principal paid off. Since this is a “bad” month, I decided to pile on and reduce our estimated home value by 6%. Six percent is the approximate amount charged by a real estate agent, so we might as well count that in. I don’t like how our net worth is overly affected by such home value guesses, and am looking for a better way to measure our progress towards financial freedom.

You can see our previous net worth updates here.

Good Chance at Free Movie Ticket Giveaway

Entenmann’s Bakery is having a “Summer Movie Moments” Giveaway where you have a good chance at winning a free movie ticket. I say a very good chance because my sister, my wife, and I all won free movie tickets on the first try. Perfect for the holiday weekend. Thanks Julie!

One entry per person. You may need to use a different computer and/or different IP address for the 2nd person. You print out a customized gift certificate with your name and 16-digit code. Good for up to $12 at these participating theaters (seems like most Regal and Cinemark theaters qualify). Mine expires 10/31/08. From the fine print:

Upon visiting sweetmoments.com, the customer may register to win a free video camera (make and model to be determined), a free movie ticket coupon (up to $12.00 value), a free concession cash coupon ($2.00 value), or a cents-off coupon for Entenmann’s product ($0.55 value). […] You must be a legal resident of AK, AR, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, KS, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NM, NV, OK, OR, SD, TX, UT, WA, or WY to be eligible to participate in the Summer Movie Moments promotion.

Magnifying Fear and Joy In The Stock Market

A co-worker of mine disclosed today that she moved her entire 401k to cash and bonds last week. She is older than me and has what must be a sizable balance because her reasoning was “I couldn’t stand it anymore, all my contributions for the last year have disappeared! Why did I bother?”

I thought that it was an interesting – albeit dangerous – way of measuring returns. I can see how it can be depressing if you start with $100,000 at the beginning of the year, keep putting away $1,000 every month for a year, and then at the end of year… you still have only $100,000 due to market drops. It can be easy to view it as simply throwing money away. I miss the safety of cash!

But this is dangerous because comparing absolute changes in your entire account to your current contributions would seem to greatly magnify any gains or losses in your account. For example, if you start with $100,000 put in $1,000/month for a year in a bull market, you might end up with $124,000 at the end of the year. You put in $12,000, but your balance grew by $24,000! Feels great, maybe I need more stocks! But in reality this is basically the above scenario in reverse, and nowhere near a 100% return.

This way of framing losses reminded me of the popular behavioral finance book Your Money & Your Brain. Are our brains just wired poorly to deal with the swings of investing?

On the other hand, perhaps this should also serve as a reminder to properly assess your appetite for risk. Going back and forth between lots of stocks and zero stocks is highly unlikely to return in better overall returns. Numerous academic studies have shown that even professional money managers don’t do market timing well at all. Simply picking something in the middle and sticking with it actually turns out better. We can try to use these gloomy times to try and find that balance where we won’t be tempted to go either way in both good times and bad.