I don’t do market predictions, but I wanted to keep some things in perspective. In the most recent edition of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, there is an updated version of a chart which I have used before to show how important time horizon is to reducing your projected risk. I have replicated it below:
The fact that the variability in returns decreases the longer one stays in the market is very encouraging news for the long-term investor. But it is critical to remember that this data assumes you buy and hold a diversified portfolio. If you buy or sell stocks based on fear or hype, all bets are off.