Archive for the 'Book Reviews' Category
Like scary stories? I usually stay away from the horror movies section, but I was intrigued by the idea behind of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future From Economic Collapse by Michael Panzer. This is a book about why our economic system is in danger, how it will collapse, and the bleak future ahead. Keep in mind that this was initially published in March 2007, even before the peak of the subprime mortgage mess and current economic slowdown. The book is separated into four parts: Threats, Risks, Fallout, and Defenses.
Threats
Here, the author lays out a relatively convincing picture of how fragile our economic system really is right now. This is the best part of the book in my opinion, and what you should read it for.
Debt. Our nation is in huge debt. Many consumers are also in huge debt or living paycheck-to-paycheck. We spend and spend, and don’t save for a rainy day. Guess what? Neither does the government. Does this sound healthy?
The Retirement System. We all know that more people are on their own with plans like 401ks, for better or worse (mostly worse). The problems with Social Security are relatively well-known. After a few big blow-ups like United, we now know that many private pensions are underfunded. And you know what? Many public pensions are underfunded as well. This is what happens when you allow politicians who need to get re-elected every few years to make promises for the next 100 years. If you think municipal governments can’t go bankrupt, check out the City of Vallejo. In other words, the things we depend on in our old age are shaky as well.
Federal Guarantees. We all love the FDIC insurance for our bank accounts, since we can basically keep our money anywhere. But due to fractional-reserve banking, for every $1 in checking accounts a bank can make $10 in loans. In other words, if a real “bank run” occurred, the FDIC reserves would be depleted quickly. Imagine what would happen if FDIC insurance started getting revoked. He also picks on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are both allowed to do some crazy things because they are “government-sponsored” and therefore people assume the government will bail them out if something goes wrong.
The problem with this is that such government guarantees encourage such financial institutions to take huge gambles. *cough* sub-prime mortgage loans *cough*. Indeed, many banks believe themselves to be “too big to fail” because they are so critical to the system. This is how we ended up with Bear Stearns being sold for $2/share. Indeed, Bear Stearns was too big to fail, so the government tried to make the bailout as painful as possible.
Derivatives are the final threat, and are instruments designed to manage risk. The problem is that corporations believe that because they are “covered” by a myriad of derivatives, they can take on some huge bets. But these “no-risk bets” are all based on complex mathematical models, and we all know models and reality are not necessarily the same. You could safely bet that the Cubs won’t win the World Series for last 99 years, but you never know…
Risks and Fallout
Inevitably, all of the these threats are weaved into a saga in which we fall into Financial Armageddon. Economic recession and then depression. Companies faltering. Stock prices plummeting. Bonds defaulting. Real estate prices dropping further. Banks and insurance companies failing. Government guarantees being removed. Skyrocketing unemployment. Entitlement programs are cut due to the lower tax revenues. Rising crime and gang activity. The government tries to print more money, leading to hyperinflation, with the prices of food and other commodities doubling every few months.
Planning
This is the most disappointing part of the book, especially since it offers to “protect our future” on the cover. So what do we do to prepare for Armageddon?! Stop spending so much and save more money for a rainy day. Okay… What about all these dropping stock and bond values? Unfortunately, there is just some vague advice about having to be “smart” and “quick” to make money from the volatility. For the rest of us, we should simply sell everything and buy physical gold because our paper money will be inflated until it is worthless. The old “buy and hold stocks” idea is useless now. We should also buy all the physical goods we can with our cash before hyperinflation hits. Perhaps this really is the best plan, but I was hoping for something more substantial than what I call the standard “buy gold and stock up on Spam ‘n toilet paper” strategy.
Summary
Panzer points out that not one recession in the past 50 years has been predicted in advance by a majority of top economists. While this is supposed to scare you, all it did was remind me that predicting the future reliable is pretty much impossible. I enjoyed reading the first half of this book, because I do think that such a scenario can happen at least to some degree, and the books does a good job of pointing out many of the weaknesses in our financial system. Moreover, it is simply a good “doom and gloom” story that is entertaining to read. Indeed, some of it has already happened! However, I did not find much insightful information in this book on how to actually protect myself from such a collapse.
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The overall moral of this book review is that even though a book finds a publisher, it doesn’t mean the advice is accurate or applicable to you. The book Millionaire by Thirty: The Quickest Path to Early Financial Independence by Doug Andrews & Company appears to be very similar to the other Missed Fortune books by the same author. In fact, from reading the reviews all of these books seem to contain the exact same material.
The book starts out innocently enough, talking about familiar concepts like focusing on your strengths, paying yourself first, spending less than you earns, and it even provides an explanation of the “envelope” system of budgeting. However, it then quickly shifts into the two main points of the book, both of which I have issues with. Too bad, I only have a few months until I’m 30 and I could use another $742,000…
Housing Prices Always Go Up, Take Out Largest Mortgage Possible!
“Do you rent? Rent is like throwing money down a black hole. It doesn’t matter how much money you have saved or how long you plan on staying in the same place, you should always try to buy a home. If you aren’t going to stay very long you can simply get an adjustable-rate loan with no down payment. Housing prices always go up, so you can enjoy the low interest for a couple of years, and then sell and make a nice profit.
If you are really smart and disciplined, you can even get an interest-only or negative-amortization loan because then you won’t build up any equity at all. Accumulating home equity is bad. Anytime you have any, you should take out a loan on it and invest it somewhere else, like a second home.”
The above are all the dangerous generalizations about real estate contained in this book. Newsflash… Renting can be the best option for many people. Housing prices do not always go up. Thousands of people who bought a home and now have to sell after a few years will have lost tens of thousands of dollars compared to if they had rented.
Don’t Invest In 401ks and Roth IRAs, Buy Universal Life Insurance Instead
Throughout the book, tax-deferred plans like 401(k)s and IRAs are dismissed, saying that you should not contribute to them unless you have at least a 50% match, and maybe not even then. Why? 401(k)s and Traditional IRAs are taxed upon withdrawal, and the Roth versions use contributions that are already taxed. In other words, both types will be taxed at least once. Also, there can be penalties for early withdrawal, even though there are ways around these.
Instead, the book repeatedly hints at a mysterious alternative investment that is completely tax-free: at contribution, during accumulation, and at distribution. This investment turns out to be equity-indexed, universal life insurance.
How are contributions tax-free? It turns out that they want you to take either a larger mortgage or home equity loan, and using that to fund the life insurance plan. Because mortgage interest is often tax-deductible, he counts this as a “tax-free” contribution. Huh?? I could put the same borrowed money into a Roth IRA or anything, and call it a tax-free contribution.
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Initially, I had intended this to be review of Suze Orman’s newest book Women & Money: Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny to be done by my wife. However, she expresses no interest in doing so. So I read it myself, and found out that her reaction was actually a bit ironic. Here is my review of this book both from the perspective of a male and the husband of a smart, capable woman who doesn’t like dealing with money.
The first half of this book deals primarily with the question of Women can handle money as well as any man… So why don’t they? It’s tough to deal with this subject obviously, because not all women are the same and you don’t want to be accused of stereotyping. But at the same time I’m glad that Suze tried. Here are a few ideas.
Women feel like coveting money is wrong. For some reason, it is okay to be proud to have a good job and a good family, but it’s wrong to openly admit you want lots of money. It could be that women tend to be more nurturing and taking care of others versus themselves. They don’t want to be considered selfish.
But at the same time that they try not to focus on money, they still worry about being broke. The book quotes a study that showed 90% of women describing themselves as feeling insecure when it came to their finances. In the same survey, nearly half the respondents said that the prospect of ending up a bag lady has crossed their minds.
Women are more team-oriented, as opposed to individually oriented. When a man thinks about money, they are at war - it’s a competitive battle. Me, me, me. When a woman thinks about money, she wants to make sure the whole team is treated fairly, and wants everyone to get along without hurting anyone else’s feelings.
An example of this is during salary negotiations. The book states that research has shown that women are 2.5 times more likely to say they feel “a great deal of apprehension” about negotiating. In one study, men used the metaphor of “winning a ballgame” to describe negotiating, while women picked the metaphor of “going to the dentist.”
I have personally experienced this with my wife. Although her performance reviews are always great, she has always been very passive when it comes to salary negotiations. Despite my suggestions, she has never asked for an higher raise than offered, and never put in a counter-offer when accepting a new job. Suze puts it this way - “You are not on sale. Do not undervalue yourself.”
Save Yourself Plan
The second half of the book is a condensed version of all her personal finance tips, broken down into 5 steps. The idea is that a woman should finish one manageable step per month. The advice is solid and straightforward, if a bit one-size-fits-all. Here’s a brief summary of each step:
- Checking and savings accounts. Get organized, get a free checking account, open up a higher-yield savings account, etc.
- Credit cards and FICO scores. Check your credit score, build up your credit if you don’t have any, pay down bills, pay less fees, etc.
- Retirement Investing. Start putting something away, invest in 401ks and Roth IRAs, buy low-cost index funds, etc.
- Must-Have Documents. Wills, living revocable trusts, advanced directives, etc.
- Protecting Your Family and Home. Life insurance, renters or homeowner’s insurance, personal liability insurance, etc.
Overall Review
I would read this book if you (or someone important you know) feels like they should learn more about money, but for whatever reason haven’t been able to do so. This books tries to find the right buttons to push, and if it works then it will be worth it. It’s pretty popular so I’m sure most libraries have a copy. The advice included afterwards is good enough as starter material, but is not a source for advanced financial tips.
As for me, this book has caused me to want to involve my wife more in the day-to-day activities, if only to get her more familiar with things. I will continue to encourage my wife to read this book, and will probably include it in my Financial Will. Any thoughts from the women who’ve read this book?
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I’ve been getting back into reading financial books, but am really behind in writing reviews for them. One book I finished last month was Wise Investing Made Simple by Larry Swedroe, which promises “Tales to Enrich Your Future”.
The key word is “tales”, because this is not a book with complex mathematical formulas or lots of charts and statistics. (Although I love charts…) It contains 27 short stories using simple concepts like sports analogies to explain the benefits of a long-term, passive approach to investing. Each story includes a quick “Moral of the Tale” summary.
I’ve already written about my favorite tale in Why Sports Betting and Stock Picking Are Similar. But here is my paraphrasing of another good chapter:
The $20 Bill
Here’s is a common story used to poke fun at the Efficient Market Hypothesis. An economist who believes in efficient markets walks down the street with a friend. The friend says “Look, there’s a $20 bill on the ground!” The economist says “No way. If there was a $20 bill on the ground somebody would have already picked it up”, and continues to walk away. This supposedly counters the idea that in a truly efficient market it would be impossible to find an under-priced stock (similar to a $20 bill priced at $10 or even free).
However, this argument is not really correct. What the story eventually explains is that while many passive investors believe that the occasional $20 bill on the ground may exist, spending your time looking for them may not be the most effective way to make money. The same could be said about stock-picking or market timing. Persistence in beating the market (finding $20 bills) beyond the randomly expected is very difficult to find.
Summary
For the investor that is already committed to passive investing and fully understands the underlying reasons why they believe that is the best strategy for them, this book probably won’t bring that much new to the table. It won’t help you decide whether to hold 20% International or 45% International stocks, or if you should include exposure to commodities or precious metals. If you are a full-time trader who is adamantly against passive investing, this book probably won’t contain enough hard facts to sway you either.
Instead, I think the sweet spot for this book are those investors that have been told “index funds are great” and may even invest in them but don’t really know why they are so great and don’t have the interest level to read some dry investing book about correlations and standard deviations. The problem with this level of understanding is that when things get tough it can be easy to bail out if you don’t really know why you’re doing something. This book breaks things down into simple, bite-size pieces without being patronizing.
On a personal level, this book might not be the very first book on saving money I’d give someone, or my favorite book about investing, but I am going to keep it in my library because it provided some different ways to explain to others (and myself at times) why I invest the way I do.
Overall Rating: 
(ratings explained)
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In the book Your Money and Your Brain, author Jason Zweig explores neuroeconomics, which apparently is a mix of psychology, neuroscience, and economics. This book looked like it would be an easy read, but it turned out to be very densely packed with information and data from numerous psychological studies. Truth be told, it got kind of tedious and repetitive, which is why it took me over a month to finish reading it. I think more aggressive editing would have helped this book a lot.
Instead of trying to do an in-depth review, I’m just going to focus on a few interesting points brought up in my favorite chapter titled “Happiness”. Isn’t being happy our ultimate goal?
If I was rich… I’d be happy. Right?
When you are below the poverty line, then yes, making more money is correlated with happiness and even better health. But as long as you have enough to meet your basic needs, more money doesn’t buy very much more happiness. We think it will, but it reality it doesn’t. This has been shown in studies comparing African tribal herders with the Forbes 400 Richest People, ones comparing people with $500,000 net worth and those with $10M+ net worth, and even between different generations of Americans:
In 1957, the average American earned about $10,000 (adjusted for inflation) and lived without a dishwasher, clothes dryer, television. or air conditioner. But 35% of people surveyed said they were “very happy” with their lives. By 2004, personal income had nearly tripled after inflation, and the typical house was bursting with consumer goods. Yet just 34% of people now said they were “very happy”. Somehow, almost tripling our wealth has made Americans a little less happy - and still we want more.
Chasing Happiness
Similarly, people think that “splurges” or getting that next hot gadget will make them happy. In truth, studies reveal that the anticipation of obtaining that object makes your brain’s dopamine levels go nuts and you feel happy. Actually getting it? Not so much. Which leads you to thinking about the next hot gadget… and so on. The “thrill of the hunt”, eh?
Keeping Up With Those Darn Joneses
It turns out that your happiness is related money in one way - how much money the people around you have! Social comparison is a very primal instinct in humans and other animals. One theory is that such attention allowed people to imitate the stronger hunters and learn to be more like them.
For example, should you buy the nicest house in a middle-class neighborhood, or a below-average house in the richest neighborhood? Your real estate agent might point out that buying in the rich neighborhood offers the best potential for home value appreciation. But the data suggests that buying in the middle-class neighborhood and getting a bigger house than everyone else will likely make you happier.
A study of more than 7,000 people in over 300 towns and cities found that, on average, the more money the richest person in your community makes, and the greater number of neighbors who earn more than you, the less satisfied you will probably feel with your life.
The relationship between money and our brains is an interesting one. It’s good to learn about those innate tendencies, so we can recognize them and react appropriately.
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I’ve been chipping away at it for months, and finally finished Thomas Friedman’s The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century. By a flat world, he means that the playing field is being leveled and the gap between emerging and developed countries is closing faster and faster. For many people this means the fear of losing jobs to outsourcing, but it’s actually a lot more than that.
Flat means less friction. Yes, less friction for jobs to go back and forth across the world (usually away from the US). But the same holds true for people, money, ideas, and even cultures. He says this is caused by the “triple convergence — of new players, on a new playing field, developing new processes and habits for horizontal collaboration.” We can either look at this loss of friction as a bad thing and try to ignore it or keep it from happening, or we can realize that it is inevitable and work to take best advantage of it.
Up to now, many of the best jobs were here, and you had to live here to perform them. But thanks to new technology like the internet and computers, as long as someone is able to learn the same skills, they can do it from anywhere. This varies from the familiar cheap manufacturing of goods and telephone support, to highly skilled jobs like corporate accounting, computer chip design, even medical procedures.
Up to now, the best education was here. To me, this is critical, and I don’t think people realize it enough. Historically, we have had the most advanced and desirable graduate schools in the world. While in grad school, just in my building alone, I was surrounded by the top students from Germany, India, China, Taiwan, Brazil, and Russia. I’ve heard their stories about having to be the top 0.01% in their country just to get here. The vast majority of these people ended up getting jobs and settling down in the US. If you look around, first-generation immigrants anchor many of the research arms of all our major corporations. Microsoft, GE, Genentech, Google…
In other words, this country has been skimming off much of the smartest and most driven people in the world for ourselves. That’s a pretty sweet deal. But as I type many countries are working feverishly to make their own educational systems better.
If another country has a similar or better educational system, and their workers can do it for less, you can bet the job will be moving there. Patriotism, protectionism, or whatever - it’s still fgoing to happen. This means that we need to work to improve our own education systems and get rid of any sense of entitlement. Soon, simply being lucky enough to have been born in the US won’t be enough.
The book touches on many more topics than this, and I don’t even claim to understand all of it. I’m not an economist nor am I much of a historian. Although Friedman overall is a great storyteller and good at explaining complex ideas, there are also several slow and repetitive parts that literally made me fall asleep while reading it.
Conclusion
In the end, The World Is Flat reminds us that we are all in constant competition with each other. Before, it was your neighbors across the street. Now, it’s anyone with internet access. While it is not a zero-sum game (there is not a fixed number of jobs), there will be people who do better than others. As Americans, we are being chased. Our choices are either to run faster or risk getting left in the dust. Just making us consider such a possibility is a good result from this book.
How you think this competition will unfold can also alter your investment strategy. I still haven’t made any conclusions regarding this, but have been considering simply weighting my investments in proportion to the value of the world’s companies (i.e. using a world market cap-weighted index).
Overall Rating: (ratings explained)
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I’m naturally skeptical of most real estate gurus, with all that feel-good “You too can be rich!” talk and very little substance. Still, I was curious to see what was inside Robert Allen’s best-selling book Nothing Down for the 2000s: Dynamic New Wealth Strategies in Real Estate. As you’ve probably guessed, it’s supposed to be about getting rich by investing in real estate with none of your own money.
If you cut out the copious amounts of go-change-your-life fluff in this book, it boils down to two main ideas:
Buy below market price by finding a “don’t-wanter” seller. A “don’t wanter” is someone who is going through some sort of trouble so that they don’t have the time or ability (or intelligence) to get market value for their property. Maybe they can no longer support the payments and are almost in foreclosure. Or they are tired of property management headaches.
Use creative mortgages to buy the property with little or no down payment. Then sell for a profit. Lending ideas included:
- Getting the owner to finance the house, so you pay them a mortgage each month instead of the bank.
- Using interest-only mortgages to minimize the monthly payment while you try to flip the house.
- Do 110% financing where you borrow more than the value of the house, and take the rest out in cash to cover the down payment (or buy another property)
- Use a loan backed by Property #1 to buy Property #2.
- Use credit cards or signature loans from the bank as a down payment.
- Buy an apartment complex right before rent is due, and use the rent and security deposits as a down payment.
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David Bach has sold a lot of books under his “Finish Rich” and “Automatic” titles. Most of his books seem to be heavy on the inspirational talk and light on the specifics, but I think that’s actually what has helped them sell so well - they are targeted for beginners.
Case in point, I wasn’t very impressed his earlier book The Automatic Millionaire (review), but as a home-buying neophyte I found a lot of useful information in The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner. Sure, he recycles a lot of his “make it automatic” mantra when talking about saving up for a house down payment (set up automatic transfers to a savings account) or setting up a bi-weekly mortgage repayment plan (set up automatic transfers with your lender), but you can pretty much just skip over those parts.
Besides all the automatic-talk, what this really provides is a brief overview of the home-buying process. Think of it as “Home Buying For Dummies”, but even shorter. From finding a real estate agent, to finding the right loan, to finding the right home. The writing is clear and well-organized. It promotes long-term homeownership, and is not at all about flipping properties. However, if you’ve already gone through the process once, the book will probably bore you to death.
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While there is a ton of great financial information on the internet, I still think the best way for a beginner to learn how to invest is to read a book. It’s by far the most efficient way to understand all the history and research behind why people like me promote low-cost index fund investing. The more you know, the less you’ll be tempted to pay high fees or chase hot stocks.
By my count, I have read and reviewed 24 financial books so far. Here are my picks. They would make a great gift or simply provide some useful reading during holiday downtime. I own all of these books, and they were some of the best money I’ve ever spent.
Best Beginner Personal Finance Book
Best Starter Investing Book
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Almost a perfect counterpoint to The Little Book That Beats The Market (review), this book could easily be titled The Big Book That Shows You Can’t Beat The Market. It weighs nearly 5 pounds, and is almost 400 pages long. This thing is a beast!
Instead, the title is Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors. This is actually a pretty good title as well. Instead of starting at the pure beginner level, it assumes that you know a little bit about the market. Maybe you’ve dabbled in stocks, or have some hot mutual fund picks on your 401(k). The basic layout of the book is this:
1) Present an active-trading idea, and then
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There’s been a lot of buzz about The Little Book That Beats the Market
, so I was excited when it finally came in from the library. Of course, at the time I was midway through Index Funds: The 12-Step Program for Active Investors
, which I’ll also be posting a review about shortly. Alternating between the two books was like a roller coaster - the Little Book fanning the (little) stock-picking flame inside me, and Index Fund book trying just as hard to stamp it out forever.
The Little Book is well, really little. It’s about the size of a 5″x7″ photograph and barely over 100 pages long. It could be easily finished in one afternoon. The writing style is simple and easy to read, although many of the jokes felt a bit forced to me.
It starts with a nice little story which explains what you are actually buying when you purchase a stock. In short, you’re not buying a physical object, but a stream of future earnings. This is why stock prices fluctuate so much - you’re trying to predict the often-hazy future.
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The Big Money by Frederick R. Kobrick, was also sent to me for review. It was good timing because I was looking for books on stockpicking to expand my reading horizons. One can only read so many books on the wonders of index funds before monotony sets in.
I’d never heard of Kobrick before this book either, but apparently he is a long-time mutual fund manager with accolades such as:
- Manager of the State Street Research Capital Fund, which was ranked as one of the top five mutual funds in the country for the entire 15-year bull market in 1997
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After reading their investing book Yes, You Can Time The Market! and liking their writing style and slightly different view on things, I decided to read Ben Stein and Phil DeMuth’s book on retirement - Yes, You Can Still Retire Comfortably!
Even though this book is targetted at Baby Boomers worried about their impending retirement, and I’m still in my 20s, it was an interesting read. First, they scare you with (true) tales of underfunded pension plans, a shaky Social Security system, and rising healthcare costs. Obviously, you need to do something about it!
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Recently, I have been avoiding reading more investing books that were basically ‘invest in index funds, invest in index funds, invest in index funds’. Great message, but I get it already. I wanted a more detailed analysis of the different asset classes, and more advice as to what to actually buy. And so I found All About Asset Allocation by Richard Ferri, which does exactly that.
The beginning of the book starts like most other index fund books: great investment skill is very rare, asset allocation determines much of your investment return, expenses matter, and you should invest for the long term. The book also explains (better than I can here) how asset allocation works by reducing your overall portfolio risk by introducing asset classes that have a low correlation to each other.
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The Intelligent Asset Allocator (IAA) by William Bernstein does exactly what it says on the cover, it teaches you ‘how to build your portfolio to maximize returns and minimize risk’. However, I would recommend that 95% of readers not buy it. Huh? Instead, I would recommend the later book by the same author, The Four Pillars of Investing (review). Even though Bernstein himself refers to it as for the ‘liberal arts’ audience, I have an engineering background and I still like Four Pillars much, much more. It just feels more refined and easier to follow.
Both books seem to cover the same general topics, with IAA giving you a clearer mathematical basis for his conclusions. To me, here are the main ideas within the book:
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