Prosper vs. LendingClub Investor Experiment: 2 Year Update

lcvspr_clipoIn November 2012, I invested $10,000 into person-to-person loans split evenly between Prosper Lending and Lending Club, looking for high returns from a new asset class. After diligently reinvesting my earned interest into new loans, I stopped my after one year (see previous updates here) and started just collecting the interest and waiting see how my final numbers would turn out at the end of the 3-year terms.

It is now about a week shy of the two year anniversary of this experiment, so here’s another quick update.

$5,000 LendingClub Portfolio. As of October 20, 2014, the LendingClub portfolio has 157 current and active loans. 71 loans were paid off early and 21 have been charged-off ($314 in principal). 3 loans are between 1-30 days late. 5 loans are between 31-120 days late, which I will assume to be unrecoverable. $3,515 in uninvested cash from early payments and interest. Total adjusted balance is $5,392. LendingClub reports my adjusted net annualized return as 5.27%. Here is a screenshot of my account.

1410_lc

$5,000 Prosper Portfolio. My Prosper portfolio now has 142 current and active loans, 85 loans paid off early, 31 charged-off. 6 loans are between 1-30 days late. 6 are over 30 days late, which to be conservative I am also going to write off completely (~$66). $3,024 in uninvested cash (early payments and interest). Total adjusted balance is $5,334. Prosper reports my net annualized return as 5.56%. Here is a screenshot of my account.

1410_prosper

Recap and Thoughts

  • P2P lending is legit. LendingClub is preparing for an IPO on the NYSE. Institutional investors are buying a significant portion of LendingClub and Prosper loans. This WSJ article says 66% of Prosper loans in 2014 have been sold to institutional investors. What started out as the Wild West of unsecured loans is now accepted by Wall Street. This would suggest that reliable positive returns for investors are more likely, but also that chances for outsized returns will be diminished.
  • If you continually reinvest your interest, the return numbers you see will be higher than your actual long-term returns. Due to how they are calculated, your reported return will deteriorate as your loans age and more borrowers default. After two years, Prosper reports my annualized return as 5.56%. 4 months ago, it was 5.76%. 8 months ago, it was 7.55%. LendingClub reports my annualized return after 2 years as 5.27%. 4 months ago, it was 5.94%. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t invest and your returns may better than mine, but be aware of this pattern if most of your loans are new.
  • If I were to invest all over again… First, I would do it within an IRA to avoid tax headaches. I would also buy at least 100 loans x $25, which also happens to be the $2,500 minimum for free automated investments at LendingClub (no minimum at Prosper). Picking loans can be fun for some but I got bored after a while.
  • LendingClub vs. Prosper relative performance. I tried my best to invest at both websites with the same criteria and overall risk preference. Right now, LendingClub is ahead by a bit. I wouldn’t put too much importance on the absolute numbers as I stopped reinvesting into new loans (at both sites) after the first year. Here’s an updated chart tracking the LendingClub and Prosper adjusted balances separately over these past two years:
    1410_prosperlc

Early Retirement Portfolio Income Update – October 2014

When investing, should you focus on income, or total return? I like the idea of living off dividend and interest income, but I also think it is easy for people to reach too far for yield and hurt their overall returns. But what is too far? That’s the hard part. Certainly there are many bad investments lurking out there for desperate retirees looking for maximum income. If possible, I’d like to invest for total return and then live off the income.

A quick and dirty way to see how much income (dividends and interest) your portfolio is generating is to take the “TTM Yield” or “12 Mo. Yield” from Morningstar quote pages. Trailing 12 Month Yield is the sum of a fund’s total trailing 12-month interest and dividend payments divided by the last month’s ending share price (NAV) plus any capital gains distributed over the same period. SEC yield is another alternative, but I like TTM because it is based on actual distributions (SEC vs. TTM yield article).

Below is a close approximation of my most recent portfolio update. I have changed my asset allocation slightly to 60% stocks and 40% bonds because I believe that will be my permanent allocation upon early retirement.

Asset Class / Fund % of Portfolio Trailing 12-Month Yield (10/18/14) Yield Contribution
US Total Stock
Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTI, VTSAX)
24% 1.78% 0.43%
US Small Value
WisdomTree SmallCap Dividend ETF (DES)
3% 2.81% 0.08%
International Total Stock
Vanguard Total International Stock Market Fund (VXUS, VTIAX)
24% 3.35% 0.80%
Emerging Markets Small Value
WisdomTree Emerging Markets SmallCap Dividend ETF (DGS)
3% 2.97% 0.09%
US Real Estate
Vanguard REIT Index Fund (VNQ, VGSLX)
6% 3.51% 0.21%
Intermediate-Term High Quality Bonds
Vanguard Limited-Term Tax-Exempt Fund (VMLUX)
20% 1.70% 0.34%
Inflation-Linked Treasury Bonds
Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities Fund (VAIPX)
20% 1.78% 0.36%
Totals 100% 2.31%

 

The total weighted yield was 2.31%, as opposed to 2.49% calculated last quarter. This means that if I had a $1,000,000 portfolio balance today, it would have generated $23,100 in interest and dividends over the last 12 months. Now, 2.31% is significantly lower than the 4% withdrawal rate often recommended for 65-year-old retirees with 30-year spending horizons, and is also lower than the 3% withdrawal that I prefer as a rough benchmark for early retirement. Hurray for zero interest rates!

So how am I doing? Using my 3% benchmark, the combination of ongoing savings and recent market gains have us at 90% of the way to matching our annual household spending target. Using the 2.31% number, I am only 69% of the way there. That’s a big difference, and something I’ll have to reconcile. Consider that if all your portfolio did was keep up with inflation each year (0% real returns), you could still spend 2% a year for 50 years. From that perspective, a 2% spending rate seems extremely cautious.

Early Retirement Portfolio Asset Allocation Update – October 2014

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